By: Robert D. Onley
PARIS, France -- Imagine living in a neighbourhood where every single one of your neighbours not only hates your guts, but literally wants to kill you. Think about that for a moment. Imagine venturing outside, only to have some of your neighbours' kids immediately throw rocks at you from both sides of your backyard.
And every time rocks are hurled indiscriminately your way, your neighbours' friends from near and afar cheer wildly in the streets, hoping for your imminent death. Now imagine this terrifying scenario practically every single day of your life, and you just may begin to understand how the government of Israel views the world.
Such an 'imaginary' scenario is actually the ruthless reality for Israel today in 2010. No matter what Israel does, good or bad, its neighbouring nations continue to hate her guts, and continue to call for her death. Some of Israel's neighbours' "kids", such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have indiscriminately launched rockets and missiles against Israel, in a blatant attempt to kill, maim and terrify the Jewish people. Yes, there has been calm in recent months, but only because Israel was forced to launch a defensive war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after enduring months of random rocket attacks throughout 2008.
Israel's childish neighbours, always behaving badly and constantly needing harsh correction, are brazenly armed and funded by Israel's arch enemy, the Islamic Republic of Iran. At the helm of this authoritarian state are the "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, two of the most ignorant and malicious national leaders on the planet which Israel unfortunately shares with them. Both men have called for Israel's "end" - a concerning declaration in all its vague, foreboding glory.
More disturbingly, both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad publicly and openly deny the Holocaust -- that is the slaughter of over 6 million Jews by Nazi Germany, and the greatest premeditated genocide in human history -- claiming that it never occurred, and proudly so.
Despite being arguably the most documented, analyzed and irrefutably proven massacres to ever occur, the leaders of Iran are still embraced by other international heads of state and are still welcomed as sane, respected --albeit Holocaust-denying-- members of humanity.
Meanwhile these very same evil men are flipping the bird to the international community by defiantly and blatantly assembling nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles to carry them. At the same time, parades are held with enormous missiles draped in "Death to Israel" banners. Yet Israel is accused of warmongering and crying wolf the moment any Israeli official calls on the international community to take action against Iran.
Such an abject, ludicrous circumstance is not part of a plot to an action novel, nor is it a twisted neo-Nazi fantasy tale. No, quite to the contrary, this script is ripped from the pages of real life.
As this article is being written, Iran's uranium centrifuges continue to spin as the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism reaches ever closer to producing the Persian Bomb.
Behind the scenes in southern Lebanon, SCUD missiles, most recently launched by Saddam's Iraq against Israel in 1991, are today being shipped to the terror group Hezbollah by Syria, one of Iran's now closest allies, and another mortal enemy of the Jewish State.
All of which makes Israel's most recent fiasco on the high seas -- involving the deaths of 9 Turkish "peace activists" onboard a "Peace Flotilla" bound for Gaza -- a mere distraction and blip on Israel's foreign policy radar. Sending commandos to drop-in from helicopters was certainly a jarring sight for governments around the world, who all promptly lined up like headless sheep to condemn Israel's actions (ie. no thinking before speaking).
But was what the Israeli government decided to do at sea really all that outlandish? The humanitarian aid ships were sent from the Republic of Turkey. Once an "ally" of Israel, now under the leadership of Recep Erdogan the Turkish government has steered itself east by openly aligning with none other than the apocalypse-inducing madmen reigning in Tehran.
It is therefore wholly unsurprising that the Israeli government was at the least suspicious of the contents of the Turkish "aid" vessels, moreso because the ship was packed and provided by the IHH, the Turkish "Human Rights and Freedom" group. With alleged extremist ties to Hamas and al-Qaeda, the Turkish IHH definitely was not considered by Israeli intelligence as merely a shipping company attempting to do something warm and fuzzy for the people of Gaza. In an area where smugglers manage to get brand new cars into the Gaza Strip through tunnels connected with Egypt, the Israeli government absolutely could not allow uninhibited access to Gaza for a massive vessel loaded up by the questionable figures in IHH.
Predictable then that as soon as Israeli commandos roped down onto the ship, they were mauled and violently beaten with batons and knives, some even before their boots could hit the deck. It seems the "peace activists" did not want the Israelis to find what "aid" lay inside.
Video released by the Israeli military (which is always careful to record its actions so as to provide the reflexively anti-Israel mainstream media with an objective account of what transpires), shows a raging mob of Turkish "peace activists" viciously attacking the Israeli soldiers, some of whom are clearly only "armed" with paintball guns.
The situation then rapidly spirals out of control after a pistol is torn from one of the soldiers and turned backed on the Israelis. Exactly what happened after that may or may not become clear in the coming days, but 9 of the most violent "peace activists" on earth are now dead.
The flash protests seen around the world in response to these "murders" are emblematic of the broader dilemma facing Israel today. In a world increasingly hostile to even the slightest twitch by the Jewish State, the Israeli government is forced to effectively make the worst possible decision every time a decision must be made.
This ingrained bias against Israel is partly the tragic consequence of our global internet-based news system which can (and often does) disseminate the same false or misinformation around the world in split-seconds via the internet.
Before a story can even be fully understood and accurately accounted, literally hundreds of millions of people have been updated through mobile news alerts, SMS, Twitter and Facebook. Soon the headline "Israeli commandos storm peace ship: 9 innocent activists dead" is all that a generation of skim-reading-know-nothing-protesters need to see. For them, their favourite target, Israel, is back in their crosshairs once again.
Last night while I was walking down the Champs-Elysées in Paris, a hoard of pro-Palestinian "peace activists" seemingly out of nowhere began screaming and chanting slogans in French, English and Arabic, ever so peacefully calling for "Death to Israel". Like a marauding gang, they marched down into the Metro station beneath some of the ritziest stores on earth.
Their chants grew more intense as non-protesters, including myself, began to grow uncomfortable at the tangible anger that was filling the Metro stop. After nearly 5 minutes of continuous chanting, I decided it was time to exit the stop before anything went south. More importantly, it was clear that the Metro trains were not arriving.
After reaching the exit, I realized why: hundreds of riot police were assembling in the surrounding area, as van-loads of fresh troops were being ferried in, sirens wailing, as traffic was redirected away from this section of the Champs-Elysées.
It was then that I realized just how deathly serious Israel's foreign policy predicament is today. With nearly-rioting French Arab youth on the busiest, prettiest street in Paris, Israel's international image problems are not isolated to its local Middle Eastern neighbours, who are well-known to hate Israel regardless of the crisis-du-jour.
Rather, the glaring problem for Israel is the burgeoning populations of anti-Israeli citizens in all the major capitals around the world. In a decade or so's time, some of the crazed protesters from the Parisian Metro stop may be sitting in France's National Assembly. Same too in governments around the world, whether in the British or Canadian Parliaments or German Bundestag.
While today's European governments often make toothless gestures of opposition to Israeli foreign policy to appease their populace, it is their future governments -- filled with potentially anti-Semitic, anti-Zionist activists -- who will be calling for international intervention to solve the conflict in the Middle-East once and for all, whether Israel likes it or not. Perhaps an international military intervention to bring Israel to "justice" will be the EU's first major military foray in the Middle East?
Maybe then, if he's still kicking around, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will see the day when Israel ceases to exist. That's if he doesn't nuke Israel first.
It's only been 66 years since the Holocaust, and the world is ready to wipe Israel off the map.
Robert D. Onley
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
At the G8/G20 Youth Summit in Vancouver, BC!
Greetings. It's been too long since I've updated my website!
In March I was selected to participate in the 2010 G8/G20 Youth Summit, held in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia from May 9-14. I am currently representing Mexico as the Minister of Finance.
The Youth Summit brings together undergraduate and graduate students from around the world to discuss and negotiate on a wide variety of international issues.
Today is the third day of negotiations, and our discussions on international financial regulations are growing more intense.
I will post more updates later on!
In March I was selected to participate in the 2010 G8/G20 Youth Summit, held in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia from May 9-14. I am currently representing Mexico as the Minister of Finance.
The Youth Summit brings together undergraduate and graduate students from around the world to discuss and negotiate on a wide variety of international issues.
Today is the third day of negotiations, and our discussions on international financial regulations are growing more intense.
I will post more updates later on!
Friday, March 5, 2010
"Israel's pre-emptive nuclear precedent" published in the Windsor Star
My latest article, "Israel's pre-emptive nuclear precedent" was published today in the Windsor Star.
I sincerely hope that forceful diplomacy can resolve the stand-off with Iran, but unless the West quickly enacts overwhelming sanctions, Israel will be forced to make a terrible decision, one with enormous repercussions.
I also hope that through my article readers can realize the high stakes of the current situation.
I very much appreciate feedback and thank you for reading!
Update: The article is no longer hosted on the Windsor Star website but can be read by clicking the article title above, or by clicking here.
I sincerely hope that forceful diplomacy can resolve the stand-off with Iran, but unless the West quickly enacts overwhelming sanctions, Israel will be forced to make a terrible decision, one with enormous repercussions.
I also hope that through my article readers can realize the high stakes of the current situation.
I very much appreciate feedback and thank you for reading!
Update: The article is no longer hosted on the Windsor Star website but can be read by clicking the article title above, or by clicking here.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Israel’s pre-emptive nuclear precedent
The ongoing crisis over Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is fast approaching its dramatic climax. With punitive sanctions only now being developed against the Islamic Republic, and the historic ineffectiveness of sanctioning, there remains but one serious option for immediately stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It is an option enshrined by a precedent few want to see repeated, but one that Israel appears ready to execute at a moment's notice.
On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-16's flew low across the Iraqi desert on a daring unilateral mission to destroy Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear reactor. On that day, the Israelis were successful.
Saddam feigned protest, and barely a murmur was heard from the world powers.
Twenty-six years later, in September 2007, Israeli fighter jets once more snuck stealthily across the blazing desert sand, this time successfully bombing a Syrian nuclear reactor under construction with direct North Korean assistance. After its destruction, the Syrian regime curiously stayed completely silent. Not a word of protest, no rioting against Israel, not even a UN resolution condemning the attack -- just guilty silence.
Now, in 2010, a mere three years later, Israel -- the tiny, democratic Jewish State -- is making public noises about its willingness to take all steps necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Everywhere he travels, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reminds audiences of the grave nuclear crossroads facing the international community. Netanyahu continually demands that the UN Security Council rapidly implement "crippling sanctions" in order to grind the Iranian economy to a halt and thus force the cessation of Iran's covert nuclear weapons program.
The glaring problem that Israel recognizes is that sanctions will take months to develop and potentially years to take effect. This is particularly so when the Security Council is as divided as it is now, with Russia and China continuing to intentionally slow progress on the sanctions front.
Russia is constructing Iran's nearly completed Bushehr nuclear power plant, at great profit, and would be furious to see Iranian payments stopped due to sanctions, or worse, to witness the plant's destruction.
Meanwhile China is blocking sanctions out of sheer economic self-interest -- billions of dollars in oil and natural gas deals with Iran provide needed lifeblood for China's economy. Israeli defence planners are agonizing at these delay tactics and are growing restless as Iran is being given free time to build nukes.
Moreover, U.S. President Obama, already mired in bloody conflicts on both of Iran's borders, feels backed into a corner on sanctions, seemingly unwilling to unilaterally escalate the situation further. Obama is also simply loath to incite further violence against U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan by conducting air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.
And so as Iran continues its public and defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons, Israel's leaders are rightly beginning to feel desperate. But Israel is not alone in this desperation. One nation to apparently side with Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue is Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal recently declared, "Sanctions are a long-term solution ... but we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat. We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution."
Sitting across from Iran in the Gulf, the world's largest oil producer is undeniably as threatened by a nuclear Iran as Israel is. While Saudi Arabia may have an interest in the higher oil prices which would result from targeted air strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the Saudis also know they represent the chief guarantor of economic recovery for a battered global economy requiring cheap oil.
What Saudi Arabia is not, however, is the publicized target of Iran's soon-to-be-nuclear missile arsenal.
Israel knows that the window for stopping Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is quickly closing. Action must be taken soon to prevent Iran's manic leaders from obtaining the world's most lethal weapon to achieve their goal of "wiping Israel off the map." Tragically, the international community appears feckless in stopping Iran -- even with widespread protests against an increasingly hated Iranian regime and growing unity in the Iranian opposition movement.
As one of Israel's few remaining vocal allies, Canada must support Israel. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has stated an "attack on Israel is attack on Canada." If Israel follows its historic precedent and conducts unilateral military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, Harper must stand up for Israel's right to self-defence against the world's most dangerous regime and largest state sponsor of terrorism -- the Islamic Republic of Iran.
On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-16's flew low across the Iraqi desert on a daring unilateral mission to destroy Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear reactor. On that day, the Israelis were successful.
Saddam feigned protest, and barely a murmur was heard from the world powers.
Twenty-six years later, in September 2007, Israeli fighter jets once more snuck stealthily across the blazing desert sand, this time successfully bombing a Syrian nuclear reactor under construction with direct North Korean assistance. After its destruction, the Syrian regime curiously stayed completely silent. Not a word of protest, no rioting against Israel, not even a UN resolution condemning the attack -- just guilty silence.
Now, in 2010, a mere three years later, Israel -- the tiny, democratic Jewish State -- is making public noises about its willingness to take all steps necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Everywhere he travels, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reminds audiences of the grave nuclear crossroads facing the international community. Netanyahu continually demands that the UN Security Council rapidly implement "crippling sanctions" in order to grind the Iranian economy to a halt and thus force the cessation of Iran's covert nuclear weapons program.
The glaring problem that Israel recognizes is that sanctions will take months to develop and potentially years to take effect. This is particularly so when the Security Council is as divided as it is now, with Russia and China continuing to intentionally slow progress on the sanctions front.
Russia is constructing Iran's nearly completed Bushehr nuclear power plant, at great profit, and would be furious to see Iranian payments stopped due to sanctions, or worse, to witness the plant's destruction.
Meanwhile China is blocking sanctions out of sheer economic self-interest -- billions of dollars in oil and natural gas deals with Iran provide needed lifeblood for China's economy. Israeli defence planners are agonizing at these delay tactics and are growing restless as Iran is being given free time to build nukes.
Moreover, U.S. President Obama, already mired in bloody conflicts on both of Iran's borders, feels backed into a corner on sanctions, seemingly unwilling to unilaterally escalate the situation further. Obama is also simply loath to incite further violence against U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan by conducting air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.
And so as Iran continues its public and defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons, Israel's leaders are rightly beginning to feel desperate. But Israel is not alone in this desperation. One nation to apparently side with Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue is Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal recently declared, "Sanctions are a long-term solution ... but we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat. We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution."
Sitting across from Iran in the Gulf, the world's largest oil producer is undeniably as threatened by a nuclear Iran as Israel is. While Saudi Arabia may have an interest in the higher oil prices which would result from targeted air strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the Saudis also know they represent the chief guarantor of economic recovery for a battered global economy requiring cheap oil.
What Saudi Arabia is not, however, is the publicized target of Iran's soon-to-be-nuclear missile arsenal.
Israel knows that the window for stopping Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is quickly closing. Action must be taken soon to prevent Iran's manic leaders from obtaining the world's most lethal weapon to achieve their goal of "wiping Israel off the map." Tragically, the international community appears feckless in stopping Iran -- even with widespread protests against an increasingly hated Iranian regime and growing unity in the Iranian opposition movement.
As one of Israel's few remaining vocal allies, Canada must support Israel. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has stated an "attack on Israel is attack on Canada." If Israel follows its historic precedent and conducts unilateral military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, Harper must stand up for Israel's right to self-defence against the world's most dangerous regime and largest state sponsor of terrorism -- the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Iran Instigating Proxy War Against Israel
Operation Cast Lead, a defensive war conducted by Israel in the brief period prior to Barack Obama's inauguration, was an effort to halt Hamas' rocket attacks on Israel. From Hamas' perspective, as a proxy militant group largely funded and armed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the war also had a secondary effect of blocking any attempt by Israel to undertake much speculated pre-emptive military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. It was Hamas after all who forcefully broke the ceasefire that preceded Israel’s defensive war, likely on Iran’s orders.
Now over a year later, Iran has made significant progress refining its nuclear weapons program, with various intelligence leaks implicating its non-peaceful nature. By any standard, the Islamic Republic is inching closer to their pernicious goal of covertly obtaining the ultimate weapon. Given this contentious reality, Iran today appears to be very close to instigating yet another proxy war against Israel. This time the war may take on a much larger scale, all to distract global attention from Iran’s nuclear program while Iranian scientists race head-long toward obtaining The Bomb. This volatile cocktail of circumstances could soon explode, and dramatically so.
Iran's tentacles of terror are growing, operating deep inside the Syrian regime, while practically running the terror groups Hamas and Hizbullah. In recent weeks, all three of these Iranian proxies began making military preparations which suggest that Iran has ordered the instigation of another war against the Jewish State. However, while Iranian President Ahmadinejad's vitriolic provocations directed at Israel are well known, what is less well understood is why exactly the Iranian regime would provoke a 'hot' war with Israel in 2010.
An Iranian missile test, September 2009.
The reason rests in a recent report published in the German newspaper Der Spiegel. The article quotes intelligence which suggests that Iran will be capable of producing a truck-sized nuclear bomb sometime this year. Israel, as the publicized target of such a devastating weapon, has every reason to believe these intelligence reports, and moreover likely has additional intelligence that makes the murky nuclear situation even more lethally grim. This past week, President Obama ordered additional missile defence platforms into the Gulf region, ostensibly to beef up the protection of America's Arab allies. The extra naval batteries are also in such dangerous waters to send a vigilant message to the Iranian regime prior to the implementation of punitive sanctions by the United States. Both of these arguments are of course true; but Obama's defensive build-up is also likely reflective of the increased military activity of both the Iranian regime and her proxy armies Hamas and Hizbullah.
Iran's recent ballistic missiles tests are obvious examples of such Iranian mischief. But the covert armament of her proxies is less-publicized. Since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel, Hizbullah has been extensively rearmed by Iran and now possesses an estimated 42000+ new rockets - nearly three times the number that it possessed before hostilities with Israel in 2006. These same rockets were indiscriminately launched against Israel by Hizbullah throughout 2006 leading up to the war that July. Compounding the situation in northern Israel was the Israeli Navy's seizure this November of a ship loaded with weapons bound for Hizbullah and Syria, sent by Iran. The 400 tons of rockets, grenades and mortars found in that vessel only further implicated the Iranian regime in its proud and grotesque support of terror directed at Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal with Ahmadinejad
Moreover, Hamas, south of Israel in the Gaza Strip, continues to have weapons smuggled into the Strip through tunnels connected with Egypt. These subversive efforts persist despite both strategic air strikes by the Israeli Air Force to halt the smuggling, and despite efforts by the Americans and Egyptians to physically prevent the transfer of weapons through the construction of an enormous steel wall built deep into the ground between Egypt and the Strip. Hamas also continues sporadic rocket launches and missile tests, and now possesses strategic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv. No longer is Hamas constrained with terrorizing the cities of Ashkelon and Sderot; Israel's largest and most populous city is within striking distance of Iran’s malicious and illicit arms.
Syrian President Bashir al-Assad with Ahmadinejad
Syria remains the most elusive and powerful of Iran’s allies and is the best armed of Israel’s closest enemies. While ruled by the Baathist Party, power rests with President Bashir al-Assad, an Alawi Shia Muslim. Accordingly, Iran's Shia leadership has facilitated a Syrian-Iranian alliance to emerge, which in recent years has developed into an enormous strategic military partnership. On Dec. 17, Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi signed a secret military pact with his Syrian counterpart General Ali Habib in Damascus, with Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah appending his signature later. Prior to this, in 2006 the defence ministers from Iran and Syria signed an agreement for military cooperation against what they called the "common threats" presented by Israel and the United States. Recent months have brought an increased war of words between Israel and Syria, with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem warning Israel this week that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities."
With the obvious rearmament of its enemies surrounding her, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak have remained defiant in the face of growing threats. However, Netanyahu certainly sees through the distractions being put on by Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria, and, while in no way ignoring those tangible threats, looks past the rumours of local war at the far greater nemesis headquartered in Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister has made repeated gestures implying that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparing a pre-emptive, unilateral military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu's warnings to Iran cannot be overlooked; rarely has a leader struck such a historical, 'seize-the-moment' tone in international affairs. Everywhere he travels, Benjamin Netanyahu reminds his audiences of the unprecedented nuclear crossroads facing the global community. Either the major powers unite to prevent the globe's greatest state-sponsor of terrorism --the Iranian Islamic Republic-- from developing the ultimate weapon, or else tiny Israel --the very nation which is targeted by Iran's desired weapons-- will take unilateral, explosive action to change the very course of modern history. By destroying Iran's nuclear facilities in the pursuit of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel, of all nations, will do the world's dirty work. For all of Russia and China's public protestations, neither state wants to see Iran develop nukes. Make no mistake, a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran in 2010 will alter the course of events for the entire decade to come, and then some. There could be no greater collision of contentious circumstances than in this now highly likely scenario.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the
Holocaust Memorial at Auschwitz in January
The Obama administration has reiterated that a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran would be unfavourable and potentially be devastating to international relations by dividing the major powers at the Security Council. For its part, the administration is correct. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu declared last week while standing on the grounds at Auschwitz, so long as he is Prime Minister, he will not allow a repeat of the Holocaust, no matter the short term consequences that result from bombing Iran. Netanyahu boldly declared, “Murderous hatred must be stopped in its tracks, stopped right from the beginning. All countries in the world must learn this lesson, just as we did after losing a third of our people in blood-soaked Europe. We learned that the only guarantee for the protection of our people is the State of Israel and its army, the IDF."
These are tremendously serious statements coming from the leader of the the Middle East's most despised nation - Israel. That Netanyahu would publicly imply his nation's preparedness in striking Iran, and as a result potentially send the staggering global economy into a tailspin on the back of skyrocketing oil prices, all dramatically and emphatically underscores the utter, abject seriousness of the situation right now between Israel, Iran and the rest of the world.
However all of this warmongering regarding a potential conflict between Israel and Iran masks what is the more likely battle set to soon emerge in the Middle East, and that is an armed conflict between Israel and her closest "neighbours", Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria. These neighbours each publicly seek the goal of eliminating the "Zionist Regime", Israel, and have shown their willingness to engage in asymmetrical warfare to do so. Is it possible they might engage Israel in battle all at the same time?
There is a serious likelihood that Iran will attempt to waylay Israel's plans for stopping the Iranian nuke, by instigating a proxy war between Israel, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - all at the same time. If Iran can successfully bog Israel down into yet another proxy battle throughout the rest of 2010, and if the United States and UN Security Council fails to take military action against Iran while an Iranian proxy war is transpiring in Israel, then Iran will buy further time to develop to their ballistic nuclear arsenal.
This prospect is more frightening than an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran. The same truck-sized Iranian nuclear bomb that Der Spiegel warned about, could potentially be introduced while Israel is fighting a four-front proxy war against Iran's proxy armies. Netanyahu knows that if the Jewish State has any chance of surviving in the future, it must stop the Iranian Bomb before the proxies tie down the Israeli military in a bloody conventional war on Israeli soil.
In essence, Israel has absolutely no good options, and thus the drums of war, always slowly thumping in the distance across Israel, can be heard banging at Israel's door. The question for the Iranian and Israeli governments is this: who will open that cursed door first?
Now over a year later, Iran has made significant progress refining its nuclear weapons program, with various intelligence leaks implicating its non-peaceful nature. By any standard, the Islamic Republic is inching closer to their pernicious goal of covertly obtaining the ultimate weapon. Given this contentious reality, Iran today appears to be very close to instigating yet another proxy war against Israel. This time the war may take on a much larger scale, all to distract global attention from Iran’s nuclear program while Iranian scientists race head-long toward obtaining The Bomb. This volatile cocktail of circumstances could soon explode, and dramatically so.
Iran's tentacles of terror are growing, operating deep inside the Syrian regime, while practically running the terror groups Hamas and Hizbullah. In recent weeks, all three of these Iranian proxies began making military preparations which suggest that Iran has ordered the instigation of another war against the Jewish State. However, while Iranian President Ahmadinejad's vitriolic provocations directed at Israel are well known, what is less well understood is why exactly the Iranian regime would provoke a 'hot' war with Israel in 2010.
An Iranian missile test, September 2009.Hizbullah's Hassan Nasrallah with Iranian President Ahmadinejad
Iran's recent ballistic missiles tests are obvious examples of such Iranian mischief. But the covert armament of her proxies is less-publicized. Since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel, Hizbullah has been extensively rearmed by Iran and now possesses an estimated 42000+ new rockets - nearly three times the number that it possessed before hostilities with Israel in 2006. These same rockets were indiscriminately launched against Israel by Hizbullah throughout 2006 leading up to the war that July. Compounding the situation in northern Israel was the Israeli Navy's seizure this November of a ship loaded with weapons bound for Hizbullah and Syria, sent by Iran. The 400 tons of rockets, grenades and mortars found in that vessel only further implicated the Iranian regime in its proud and grotesque support of terror directed at Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal with Ahmadinejad
Moreover, Hamas, south of Israel in the Gaza Strip, continues to have weapons smuggled into the Strip through tunnels connected with Egypt. These subversive efforts persist despite both strategic air strikes by the Israeli Air Force to halt the smuggling, and despite efforts by the Americans and Egyptians to physically prevent the transfer of weapons through the construction of an enormous steel wall built deep into the ground between Egypt and the Strip. Hamas also continues sporadic rocket launches and missile tests, and now possesses strategic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv. No longer is Hamas constrained with terrorizing the cities of Ashkelon and Sderot; Israel's largest and most populous city is within striking distance of Iran’s malicious and illicit arms.Syrian President Bashir al-Assad with Ahmadinejad
Syria remains the most elusive and powerful of Iran’s allies and is the best armed of Israel’s closest enemies. While ruled by the Baathist Party, power rests with President Bashir al-Assad, an Alawi Shia Muslim. Accordingly, Iran's Shia leadership has facilitated a Syrian-Iranian alliance to emerge, which in recent years has developed into an enormous strategic military partnership. On Dec. 17, Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi signed a secret military pact with his Syrian counterpart General Ali Habib in Damascus, with Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah appending his signature later. Prior to this, in 2006 the defence ministers from Iran and Syria signed an agreement for military cooperation against what they called the "common threats" presented by Israel and the United States. Recent months have brought an increased war of words between Israel and Syria, with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem warning Israel this week that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities."With the obvious rearmament of its enemies surrounding her, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak have remained defiant in the face of growing threats. However, Netanyahu certainly sees through the distractions being put on by Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria, and, while in no way ignoring those tangible threats, looks past the rumours of local war at the far greater nemesis headquartered in Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister has made repeated gestures implying that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparing a pre-emptive, unilateral military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu's warnings to Iran cannot be overlooked; rarely has a leader struck such a historical, 'seize-the-moment' tone in international affairs. Everywhere he travels, Benjamin Netanyahu reminds his audiences of the unprecedented nuclear crossroads facing the global community. Either the major powers unite to prevent the globe's greatest state-sponsor of terrorism --the Iranian Islamic Republic-- from developing the ultimate weapon, or else tiny Israel --the very nation which is targeted by Iran's desired weapons-- will take unilateral, explosive action to change the very course of modern history. By destroying Iran's nuclear facilities in the pursuit of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel, of all nations, will do the world's dirty work. For all of Russia and China's public protestations, neither state wants to see Iran develop nukes. Make no mistake, a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran in 2010 will alter the course of events for the entire decade to come, and then some. There could be no greater collision of contentious circumstances than in this now highly likely scenario.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the
Holocaust Memorial at Auschwitz in January
The Obama administration has reiterated that a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran would be unfavourable and potentially be devastating to international relations by dividing the major powers at the Security Council. For its part, the administration is correct. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu declared last week while standing on the grounds at Auschwitz, so long as he is Prime Minister, he will not allow a repeat of the Holocaust, no matter the short term consequences that result from bombing Iran. Netanyahu boldly declared, “Murderous hatred must be stopped in its tracks, stopped right from the beginning. All countries in the world must learn this lesson, just as we did after losing a third of our people in blood-soaked Europe. We learned that the only guarantee for the protection of our people is the State of Israel and its army, the IDF."These are tremendously serious statements coming from the leader of the the Middle East's most despised nation - Israel. That Netanyahu would publicly imply his nation's preparedness in striking Iran, and as a result potentially send the staggering global economy into a tailspin on the back of skyrocketing oil prices, all dramatically and emphatically underscores the utter, abject seriousness of the situation right now between Israel, Iran and the rest of the world.
However all of this warmongering regarding a potential conflict between Israel and Iran masks what is the more likely battle set to soon emerge in the Middle East, and that is an armed conflict between Israel and her closest "neighbours", Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria. These neighbours each publicly seek the goal of eliminating the "Zionist Regime", Israel, and have shown their willingness to engage in asymmetrical warfare to do so. Is it possible they might engage Israel in battle all at the same time?
There is a serious likelihood that Iran will attempt to waylay Israel's plans for stopping the Iranian nuke, by instigating a proxy war between Israel, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - all at the same time. If Iran can successfully bog Israel down into yet another proxy battle throughout the rest of 2010, and if the United States and UN Security Council fails to take military action against Iran while an Iranian proxy war is transpiring in Israel, then Iran will buy further time to develop to their ballistic nuclear arsenal.
This prospect is more frightening than an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran. The same truck-sized Iranian nuclear bomb that Der Spiegel warned about, could potentially be introduced while Israel is fighting a four-front proxy war against Iran's proxy armies. Netanyahu knows that if the Jewish State has any chance of surviving in the future, it must stop the Iranian Bomb before the proxies tie down the Israeli military in a bloody conventional war on Israeli soil.
In essence, Israel has absolutely no good options, and thus the drums of war, always slowly thumping in the distance across Israel, can be heard banging at Israel's door. The question for the Iranian and Israeli governments is this: who will open that cursed door first?
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