Shameful Insanity in Iran

Amid the scenes of Iranians bravely and peacefully protesting the results of last week's blatantly rigged election, on Friday Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had the audacity to address his nation and blame the "Zionist-affiliated media [for] falsely portraying [the] political situation." This, in a world where even the most aggressive attempts by the Iranian government to block Internet, television and cell phone use all miserably failed to prevent thousands of protesters' high-resolution pictures, videos and news articles from reaching the outside world. The Ayatollah should be ashamed of his ignorance, while Israel and the West should prepare to act as Khamenei's goons are beginning to crack down on their fellow Iranians.

What the Ayatollah shamefully ignored is that the so-called "Zionist media" could not have falsely portrayed the Iranian protests, nor did anyone or any global entity have to do so mischievously. Instead it was and is Iran's own populace which continues to broadcast their nation's defining moment - proudly, defiantly, and peacefully for the whole world to see, using Twitter as their newest digital vehicle. In fact, equipped with its daft, geriatric leaders, the world's sole Islamic Republic finds itself all alone in ignoring the digital media revolution transpiring on their own youth-filled streets.

Unlike in 1979, Iranian students today are armed with the latest nigh-unstoppable technological means of instantly sharing their courageous message, and are doing a better job than any mass-scale misinformation campaign could ever have. Indeed, in an increasingly pervasive digital world, Ayatollah Khamenei's finger-pointing at the "Zionist media" is strikingly retro in its vague, generic ugliness. It is as if the Ayatollah does not understand that almost every cell-phone today is equipped with picture and video camera capability and thus any moment, anywhere, can be instantly recorded and shared with the world.

As a further indictment of the Ayatollah's age and fleeting competence, the re-anointment of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the least forward-thinking, purely short-term decision for the life of the Iranian theocracy. But in spite all of the obvious problems that Ahmadinejad represents to the world around Iran, Khamenei appears at this time more comfortable with the 'devil he knows' in his pal Mahmoud. Alternatively, while Mousavi is no political outsider to Khamenei --having served as Iran's Prime Minister from 1981-1989 during the horrifying Iran-Iraq War-- his alleged 'reform' platform may ultimately scare the Ayatollah away from giving him the presidential reins of power.

Again this uncertainty suggests that Khamenei's ultimate authority and intellectual supremacy may be crumbling inside the Iranian theocratic machine. Certainly some of Iran's political leaders have by now questioned Khamenei's wisdom in castigating an overwhelming majority of young Iranians, most of whom are now valiantly opposing the regime's oppressive actions. These are also the same young Iranians that will begin assuming positions of influence within the country over the next decade, learning the ropes of power to one-day-soon remove their clearly foolish political elders.

In my article published Tuesday entitled “The Inevitable Iranian Crisis", I suggested that if the Ayatollah's were calculating longer-term, then Mousavi was a more logical candidate for Khamenei to hand-pick to lead the Iranian nation. Nonetheless, in an effort to condemn the West, blame the "Zionists" and reinforce his rapidly withering grip on 'supreme' power, Khamenei has chosen a comfortable fate that tragically will only lead to future conflict, internal instability and more destitution for the Iranian populace. It may also lead to his deposal.

This is an outcome that Mousavi's supporters can most definitely foresee. The current vigor and enthusiasm displayed by the young 20-something crowds in calling for the replacement of Ahmadinejad will eventually give way to the cold, jobless financial and social realities of living in an increasingly sanctioned nation. Some might disagree and suggest that their dire physical situation will instead lengthen their protests and strengthen their movement. Either way, the protesters' resolve is being put to the ultimate test.

Further, as Iran's leaders relentlessly pursue nuclear capabilities --with all of the resultant questioning over its flagrantly covert nature-- these same young Iranians can see the potentially cataclysmic conflict that just might explode over Ahmadinejad's stubborn defiance of international demands to halt nuclear enrichment work. This issue presents a paradox for Israeli and Western policymakers, as the Iranian nuclear program is seen as a ray of technological hope and national pride for these same repressed Iranians, but is nevertheless a frightening tool wielded in the hands of Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and even Mousavi.

Accordingly Ahmadinejad's vile rhetoric will more than likely increase over the next few months as his re-anointment solidifies his belief that Allah has selected him to hasten the return of the 12th "Hidden Imam". In speech after speech this fanatical, Holocaust-denying national president has made clear his fundamental belief that Allah alone has placed him where he is to lead the world into the Islamic Apocalypse. If only Iran had the venomous weapons capability to ignite such a conflict, Ahmadinejad might soon be in paradise and the Persian and Israeli sands aglow with the soft green tinge of a fresh nuclear missile exchange.

This is not "Zionist" here say, Western hyperbole or underhanded slander against Ahmadinejad, but rather a factual account of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei's utterly twisted 'End Times' worldview. One need only watch Ahmadinejad's sub-titled speeches on YouTube (particularly at the UN General Assembly in September 2007) to uncover these disturbing truths about Iran's newly re-anointed, nuclear-weapons-seeking president. The terrifying realities should serve as a stark backdrop to the violent crackdown on protesters and to the Iranian Regime’s last-ditch efforts to maintain absolute power. This is a regime that will seek survival at all costs in order to soon fulfill their perceived apocalyptic destiny.

How then, does the West support such a repressed society against their loathed regime, while simultaneously putting an abrupt stop to that regime's contentious, rapidly-advancing nuclear program? How is it possible to engage the Supreme Leaders of Iran on the single most dangerous, volatile and lethal weapons technology, when the same men so proudly defy international calls either for a new election or at the very least an open, transparent recount of the votes?

This dilemma is so patently confounding that warning sirens should be blaring in the heads of any Western diplomat seriously considering "negotiations without preconditions” with the Iranian Islamic Republic. Any shred of credibility that Iran's "Supreme Leaders" may have possessed (and there was little even before this election) has now been incinerated in the fires of Ayatollah Khamenei's intransigence, ignorance and ignominy. If anything, these future nuclear negotiations should have more preconditions than ever before to ensure that any potential resolution on Iran’s nuclear program is actually adhered to, respected and enforced.

Israeli leaders would be wise to take note of this intellectual quagmire, and ultimately prepare for worst case scenarios. Israel is caught in the crosshairs of this international morass as a negotiable bargaining chip, while literally being caught in the crosshairs of Iran’s avowed proxy armies Hamas and Hizbullah. With a whole generation of young, freedom-yearning Iranians depending on the West's support during their current leader's shamefully insane moment, Prime Minister Netanyahu must stake Israel’s position and stick to it with unrelenting determination.

Further the protesters’ vivid pictures and Twittered accounts must speak far louder than Ayatollah Khamenei's failing attempts to shut them up. Iranian students are to be encouraged to continue aggressively seeking professions that will provide the experience and personal skills needed to lead Iran out of its dark days today, into a brighter future alongside the rest of the international community. As an emblem of peaceable democracy in the region, Israel too can join with these Iranian students to leverage their potential futures against their leaders’ delusional nuclear dreams. Israel --and the Iranian students-- have few other options at this contentious time.

The Inevitable Iranian Crisis - now published!

Just received the word that my article "The Inevitable Iranian Crisis" posted here below was published by the Israel National News.

Check it out: "The Inevitable Iranian Crisis" by Robert D. Onley on Israel National News

The Inevitable Iranian Crisis

In spite of Ayatollah Khamenei’s recent call for an inquiry into the Iranian ‘election’ results, and in spite of the potential for ‘reform’ embodied by Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iran and Israel are racing toward explosive armed conflict over Iran's covert - yet utterly flagrant and defiant - pursuit of nuclear weapons capability. Today, while the Iranian populace collectively and legitimately 'holds its breath' with regard to their nation’s electoral future, the depressing reality at the international level is that the Israeli-Iranian nuclear crisis will continue to deteriorate, and rapidly so.

Iran's president may change, however it is the Ayatollahs above Iran’s next president – be it Ahmadinejad or Mousavi – that remain Iran’s unchangeable, authoritative supreme leaders. Certainly the Ayatollahs cheered for one candidate or the other during the recent presidential campaigns, with Ahmadinejad’s re-election bid undeniably funded by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei et al. These are predictable variables in an unpredictable world.

However there can be no mistaking the chess-playing nature of Iran’s supreme leaders. The Ayatollahs are fully cognizant of the sheer social power that the appearance of change can bring to the overall mood of society, particularly with a people as young, impressionable and downtrodden as Iran’s. Indeed, U.S. President Obama’s election in November shook the world’s attention to this impressively powerful social force, with his hypnotic “Yes we can” mantra

bringing millions of Americans to their feet to support America’s new awe-inspiring leader.

A Facade of Change

In Iran, while the stakes may not be as electorally significant, the facade of historic change by ‘electing’ a ‘

reformer’ such as Mir Hossein Mousavi may be just the trick needed for the longevity of the Ayatollahs Islamic theocracy and for the continuing development of a certain highly sought-after Iranian weapons capability. As such, Ayatollah Khamenei's call for an ‘inquiry’ into the presidential election may represent

the first move in a carefully crafted plan to create this appearance of change and bide Iran’s time.

The simple reality is this: if Iran is to ever fully and properly develop nuclear weapons, the Ayatollahs must be unquestionably conscious of how detrimental Ahmadinejad has and will become to Iran’s secret nuclear program. There is no arguing that Ahmadinejad has isolated the Iranian regime, made a mockery of the evil of humanity by denying the Holocaust, all while simultaneously dragging their enemy Israel into armed conflict with its proxy ar

mies, first with Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and most recently with Hamas in Gaza in January 2009. International focus on Iran went from marginal uncertainty in 2005 to outright condemnation by 2009.

More critically, the Ayatollahs also know that perhaps just another few months are needed to procure enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear bombs. The world’s leading intelligence agencies are after precise knowledge as to how many nuclear weapons Iran might already have, or might soon have. Israel knows that the existence of any Iranian nuke holds the key to the Israeli response, or not, and knows that while Iran undergoes dramatic electoral upheaval and protest, the Iranian nuclear machine is quietly churning out more uranium in the background. Meanwhile the Ayatollahs simply nod with approval and smile.

'Invisible' Diplomatic Timeline?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s overt hints that Israel is prepared to ‘defend itself’ through pre-emptive action against Iran’s nuclear program patently suggests that Israel knows time has essentially run out, regardless of how many potential nukes Iran might possess. For Netanyahu, there is no ‘invisible’ one-year timeline, one which President Obama appears to envision. Obama’s fanciful diplomatic talk is but a further distraction in an already strung-out ‘negotiation’ process with Iran that spans many agonizing years.

Moreover, if Iran is still a full six months away from having the uranium for just one bomb, Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity will nonetheless continue to exponentially increase so long as more and more centrifuges are made operational in those very same six months. Thus for Israel, not only is Obama’s one-year negotiation ‘timeline’ ludicrously brief, the overall Iranian nuclear crisis ‘timeline’ is also shrinking faster for the world with each passing day and with each shiny new centrifuge.

Who Best For the Islamic Republic's Future?

Imagine then, Iran’s Ayatollahs sitting somewhere deep inside Tehran, debating which candidate to hand-pick to lead their nation into sole possession of Middle Eastern nuclear stardom. The basic, unavoidable question facing the Ayatollahs is this: which Presidential candidate will deceive the West long enough so that we (Iran) can finally develop multiple nuclear weapons – one to test and the rest to immediately deploy into ‘service’? The Ayatollahs answer for their next President just might be: “Anyone but Ahmadinejad.” Khamenei’s electoral ‘inquiry’ will reveal the depth of Iranian foresight.

As the world’s most-loathed and disturbed fanatic, President Ahmadinejad represents all of the blatant contingencies that will likely provoke a conflict with Israel sooner rather than later. Of course, this conflict is exactly what the Ayatollahs one-day desire as part of the return of their “Hidden Imam” – but war is not desired until Iran has developed multiple nuclear weapons and more importantly a nuclear deterrent combined with first strike Shahab-4 nuclear missile capability.

In light of this apocalyptic Iranian dream, the ‘election’ of an opposition candidate in Iran such as Mir Hossein Mousavi will not be a surprising result of the inquiry, as it will actually provide the necessary pomp, delay and circumstance for Iran to launch immediate, ‘full disclosure’, ‘peaceful’ nuclear negotiations with the Americans, thus ultimately gaining precious time for nuclear weapons and missile development.

At that point, Israel will be pressed so hard by all corners of the world to not launch preemptive strikes against Iran, that any action undertaken by Israel – even if limited to smaller isolated tactical strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites – will instantly ignite a horrifying barrage of missile attacks against Israel from Hezbollah, Hamas and more than likely from Iran itself. These missiles – particularly those launched from Iran – could already be tipped with a crude nuclear device assembled from Iran’s first batches of highly enriched uranium. This is to say nothing of Syria’s possible involvement, and their alleged nuclear and chemical weapons program. These are the unpredictable variables of living in the world’s most deadly region.

No Alternative Options

The lone unresolved determinable variable is therefore the frightening decision for Israel’s top political and military leaders to either undertake such defensive military strikes against Iran, or to instead accept an enemy Iranian capability that could erase the Israeli land in the blink of an eye. To leave Iran’s nuclear program unchecked is to ensure Israel’s future destruction in some form or another. This is also to abandon the dreams of Israel’s descendants to the Holocaust-denying delusions of Iran’s apocalypse-inducing leaders.

These are brutal, objective realities. There are no other enemies on earth more determined to eliminate their target

than Israel’s virulent, hate-filled, purely evil foes in Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran. Indeed even across the entire

globe today, only the State of Israel is subject to a tangible level of hate which literally threatens the actual, physical existence of Israel as its citizens - and the world - knows it.

If there is one country and one leader wholly and entirely justified in resolutely eliminating an existential threat today, that country is Israel and that leader is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Let the world not be distracted by the ‘potential’ for ‘electoral change’ in Iran; instead let Israel’s leaders remain focused, well prepared and courageously set to embark on an undesired yet unavoidable military mission that will inarguably change the course of world history. The United States has shown it will not do this for them; thus Israel cannot fail at its lonely, crucial hour.

Robert D. Onley - Copyright 2009

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