The ongoing crisis over Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is fast approaching its dramatic climax. With punitive sanctions only now being developed against the Islamic Republic, and the historic ineffectiveness of sanctioning, there remains but one serious option for immediately stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It is an option enshrined by a precedent few want to see repeated, but one that Israel appears ready to execute at a moment's notice.
On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-16's flew low across the Iraqi desert on a daring unilateral mission to destroy Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear reactor. On that day, the Israelis were successful.
Saddam feigned protest, and barely a murmur was heard from the world powers.
Twenty-six years later, in September 2007, Israeli fighter jets once more snuck stealthily across the blazing desert sand, this time successfully bombing a Syrian nuclear reactor under construction with direct North Korean assistance. After its destruction, the Syrian regime curiously stayed completely silent. Not a word of protest, no rioting against Israel, not even a UN resolution condemning the attack -- just guilty silence.
Now, in 2010, a mere three years later, Israel -- the tiny, democratic Jewish State -- is making public noises about its willingness to take all steps necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Everywhere he travels, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reminds audiences of the grave nuclear crossroads facing the international community. Netanyahu continually demands that the UN Security Council rapidly implement "crippling sanctions" in order to grind the Iranian economy to a halt and thus force the cessation of Iran's covert nuclear weapons program.
The glaring problem that Israel recognizes is that sanctions will take months to develop and potentially years to take effect. This is particularly so when the Security Council is as divided as it is now, with Russia and China continuing to intentionally slow progress on the sanctions front.
Russia is constructing Iran's nearly completed Bushehr nuclear power plant, at great profit, and would be furious to see Iranian payments stopped due to sanctions, or worse, to witness the plant's destruction.
Meanwhile China is blocking sanctions out of sheer economic self-interest -- billions of dollars in oil and natural gas deals with Iran provide needed lifeblood for China's economy. Israeli defence planners are agonizing at these delay tactics and are growing restless as Iran is being given free time to build nukes.
Moreover, U.S. President Obama, already mired in bloody conflicts on both of Iran's borders, feels backed into a corner on sanctions, seemingly unwilling to unilaterally escalate the situation further. Obama is also simply loath to incite further violence against U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan by conducting air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.
And so as Iran continues its public and defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons, Israel's leaders are rightly beginning to feel desperate. But Israel is not alone in this desperation. One nation to apparently side with Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue is Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal recently declared, "Sanctions are a long-term solution ... but we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat. We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution."
Sitting across from Iran in the Gulf, the world's largest oil producer is undeniably as threatened by a nuclear Iran as Israel is. While Saudi Arabia may have an interest in the higher oil prices which would result from targeted air strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the Saudis also know they represent the chief guarantor of economic recovery for a battered global economy requiring cheap oil.
What Saudi Arabia is not, however, is the publicized target of Iran's soon-to-be-nuclear missile arsenal.
Israel knows that the window for stopping Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is quickly closing. Action must be taken soon to prevent Iran's manic leaders from obtaining the world's most lethal weapon to achieve their goal of "wiping Israel off the map." Tragically, the international community appears feckless in stopping Iran -- even with widespread protests against an increasingly hated Iranian regime and growing unity in the Iranian opposition movement.
As one of Israel's few remaining vocal allies, Canada must support Israel. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has stated an "attack on Israel is attack on Canada." If Israel follows its historic precedent and conducts unilateral military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, Harper must stand up for Israel's right to self-defence against the world's most dangerous regime and largest state sponsor of terrorism -- the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Monday, February 1, 2010
Iran Instigating Proxy War Against Israel
Operation Cast Lead, a defensive war conducted by Israel in the brief period prior to Barack Obama's inauguration, was an effort to halt Hamas' rocket attacks on Israel. From Hamas' perspective, as a proxy militant group largely funded and armed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the war also had a secondary effect of blocking any attempt by Israel to undertake much speculated pre-emptive military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. It was Hamas after all who forcefully broke the ceasefire that preceded Israel’s defensive war, likely on Iran’s orders.
Now over a year later, Iran has made significant progress refining its nuclear weapons program, with various intelligence leaks implicating its non-peaceful nature. By any standard, the Islamic Republic is inching closer to their pernicious goal of covertly obtaining the ultimate weapon. Given this contentious reality, Iran today appears to be very close to instigating yet another proxy war against Israel. This time the war may take on a much larger scale, all to distract global attention from Iran’s nuclear program while Iranian scientists race head-long toward obtaining The Bomb. This volatile cocktail of circumstances could soon explode, and dramatically so.
Iran's tentacles of terror are growing, operating deep inside the Syrian regime, while practically running the terror groups Hamas and Hizbullah. In recent weeks, all three of these Iranian proxies began making military preparations which suggest that Iran has ordered the instigation of another war against the Jewish State. However, while Iranian President Ahmadinejad's vitriolic provocations directed at Israel are well known, what is less well understood is why exactly the Iranian regime would provoke a 'hot' war with Israel in 2010.
An Iranian missile test, September 2009.
The reason rests in a recent report published in the German newspaper Der Spiegel. The article quotes intelligence which suggests that Iran will be capable of producing a truck-sized nuclear bomb sometime this year. Israel, as the publicized target of such a devastating weapon, has every reason to believe these intelligence reports, and moreover likely has additional intelligence that makes the murky nuclear situation even more lethally grim. This past week, President Obama ordered additional missile defence platforms into the Gulf region, ostensibly to beef up the protection of America's Arab allies. The extra naval batteries are also in such dangerous waters to send a vigilant message to the Iranian regime prior to the implementation of punitive sanctions by the United States. Both of these arguments are of course true; but Obama's defensive build-up is also likely reflective of the increased military activity of both the Iranian regime and her proxy armies Hamas and Hizbullah.
Iran's recent ballistic missiles tests are obvious examples of such Iranian mischief. But the covert armament of her proxies is less-publicized. Since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel, Hizbullah has been extensively rearmed by Iran and now possesses an estimated 42000+ new rockets - nearly three times the number that it possessed before hostilities with Israel in 2006. These same rockets were indiscriminately launched against Israel by Hizbullah throughout 2006 leading up to the war that July. Compounding the situation in northern Israel was the Israeli Navy's seizure this November of a ship loaded with weapons bound for Hizbullah and Syria, sent by Iran. The 400 tons of rockets, grenades and mortars found in that vessel only further implicated the Iranian regime in its proud and grotesque support of terror directed at Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal with Ahmadinejad
Moreover, Hamas, south of Israel in the Gaza Strip, continues to have weapons smuggled into the Strip through tunnels connected with Egypt. These subversive efforts persist despite both strategic air strikes by the Israeli Air Force to halt the smuggling, and despite efforts by the Americans and Egyptians to physically prevent the transfer of weapons through the construction of an enormous steel wall built deep into the ground between Egypt and the Strip. Hamas also continues sporadic rocket launches and missile tests, and now possesses strategic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv. No longer is Hamas constrained with terrorizing the cities of Ashkelon and Sderot; Israel's largest and most populous city is within striking distance of Iran’s malicious and illicit arms.
Syrian President Bashir al-Assad with Ahmadinejad
Syria remains the most elusive and powerful of Iran’s allies and is the best armed of Israel’s closest enemies. While ruled by the Baathist Party, power rests with President Bashir al-Assad, an Alawi Shia Muslim. Accordingly, Iran's Shia leadership has facilitated a Syrian-Iranian alliance to emerge, which in recent years has developed into an enormous strategic military partnership. On Dec. 17, Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi signed a secret military pact with his Syrian counterpart General Ali Habib in Damascus, with Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah appending his signature later. Prior to this, in 2006 the defence ministers from Iran and Syria signed an agreement for military cooperation against what they called the "common threats" presented by Israel and the United States. Recent months have brought an increased war of words between Israel and Syria, with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem warning Israel this week that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities."
With the obvious rearmament of its enemies surrounding her, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak have remained defiant in the face of growing threats. However, Netanyahu certainly sees through the distractions being put on by Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria, and, while in no way ignoring those tangible threats, looks past the rumours of local war at the far greater nemesis headquartered in Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister has made repeated gestures implying that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparing a pre-emptive, unilateral military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu's warnings to Iran cannot be overlooked; rarely has a leader struck such a historical, 'seize-the-moment' tone in international affairs. Everywhere he travels, Benjamin Netanyahu reminds his audiences of the unprecedented nuclear crossroads facing the global community. Either the major powers unite to prevent the globe's greatest state-sponsor of terrorism --the Iranian Islamic Republic-- from developing the ultimate weapon, or else tiny Israel --the very nation which is targeted by Iran's desired weapons-- will take unilateral, explosive action to change the very course of modern history. By destroying Iran's nuclear facilities in the pursuit of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel, of all nations, will do the world's dirty work. For all of Russia and China's public protestations, neither state wants to see Iran develop nukes. Make no mistake, a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran in 2010 will alter the course of events for the entire decade to come, and then some. There could be no greater collision of contentious circumstances than in this now highly likely scenario.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the
Holocaust Memorial at Auschwitz in January
The Obama administration has reiterated that a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran would be unfavourable and potentially be devastating to international relations by dividing the major powers at the Security Council. For its part, the administration is correct. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu declared last week while standing on the grounds at Auschwitz, so long as he is Prime Minister, he will not allow a repeat of the Holocaust, no matter the short term consequences that result from bombing Iran. Netanyahu boldly declared, “Murderous hatred must be stopped in its tracks, stopped right from the beginning. All countries in the world must learn this lesson, just as we did after losing a third of our people in blood-soaked Europe. We learned that the only guarantee for the protection of our people is the State of Israel and its army, the IDF."
These are tremendously serious statements coming from the leader of the the Middle East's most despised nation - Israel. That Netanyahu would publicly imply his nation's preparedness in striking Iran, and as a result potentially send the staggering global economy into a tailspin on the back of skyrocketing oil prices, all dramatically and emphatically underscores the utter, abject seriousness of the situation right now between Israel, Iran and the rest of the world.
However all of this warmongering regarding a potential conflict between Israel and Iran masks what is the more likely battle set to soon emerge in the Middle East, and that is an armed conflict between Israel and her closest "neighbours", Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria. These neighbours each publicly seek the goal of eliminating the "Zionist Regime", Israel, and have shown their willingness to engage in asymmetrical warfare to do so. Is it possible they might engage Israel in battle all at the same time?
There is a serious likelihood that Iran will attempt to waylay Israel's plans for stopping the Iranian nuke, by instigating a proxy war between Israel, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - all at the same time. If Iran can successfully bog Israel down into yet another proxy battle throughout the rest of 2010, and if the United States and UN Security Council fails to take military action against Iran while an Iranian proxy war is transpiring in Israel, then Iran will buy further time to develop to their ballistic nuclear arsenal.
This prospect is more frightening than an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran. The same truck-sized Iranian nuclear bomb that Der Spiegel warned about, could potentially be introduced while Israel is fighting a four-front proxy war against Iran's proxy armies. Netanyahu knows that if the Jewish State has any chance of surviving in the future, it must stop the Iranian Bomb before the proxies tie down the Israeli military in a bloody conventional war on Israeli soil.
In essence, Israel has absolutely no good options, and thus the drums of war, always slowly thumping in the distance across Israel, can be heard banging at Israel's door. The question for the Iranian and Israeli governments is this: who will open that cursed door first?
Now over a year later, Iran has made significant progress refining its nuclear weapons program, with various intelligence leaks implicating its non-peaceful nature. By any standard, the Islamic Republic is inching closer to their pernicious goal of covertly obtaining the ultimate weapon. Given this contentious reality, Iran today appears to be very close to instigating yet another proxy war against Israel. This time the war may take on a much larger scale, all to distract global attention from Iran’s nuclear program while Iranian scientists race head-long toward obtaining The Bomb. This volatile cocktail of circumstances could soon explode, and dramatically so.
Iran's tentacles of terror are growing, operating deep inside the Syrian regime, while practically running the terror groups Hamas and Hizbullah. In recent weeks, all three of these Iranian proxies began making military preparations which suggest that Iran has ordered the instigation of another war against the Jewish State. However, while Iranian President Ahmadinejad's vitriolic provocations directed at Israel are well known, what is less well understood is why exactly the Iranian regime would provoke a 'hot' war with Israel in 2010.
An Iranian missile test, September 2009.Hizbullah's Hassan Nasrallah with Iranian President Ahmadinejad
Iran's recent ballistic missiles tests are obvious examples of such Iranian mischief. But the covert armament of her proxies is less-publicized. Since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel, Hizbullah has been extensively rearmed by Iran and now possesses an estimated 42000+ new rockets - nearly three times the number that it possessed before hostilities with Israel in 2006. These same rockets were indiscriminately launched against Israel by Hizbullah throughout 2006 leading up to the war that July. Compounding the situation in northern Israel was the Israeli Navy's seizure this November of a ship loaded with weapons bound for Hizbullah and Syria, sent by Iran. The 400 tons of rockets, grenades and mortars found in that vessel only further implicated the Iranian regime in its proud and grotesque support of terror directed at Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal with Ahmadinejad
Moreover, Hamas, south of Israel in the Gaza Strip, continues to have weapons smuggled into the Strip through tunnels connected with Egypt. These subversive efforts persist despite both strategic air strikes by the Israeli Air Force to halt the smuggling, and despite efforts by the Americans and Egyptians to physically prevent the transfer of weapons through the construction of an enormous steel wall built deep into the ground between Egypt and the Strip. Hamas also continues sporadic rocket launches and missile tests, and now possesses strategic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv. No longer is Hamas constrained with terrorizing the cities of Ashkelon and Sderot; Israel's largest and most populous city is within striking distance of Iran’s malicious and illicit arms.Syrian President Bashir al-Assad with Ahmadinejad
Syria remains the most elusive and powerful of Iran’s allies and is the best armed of Israel’s closest enemies. While ruled by the Baathist Party, power rests with President Bashir al-Assad, an Alawi Shia Muslim. Accordingly, Iran's Shia leadership has facilitated a Syrian-Iranian alliance to emerge, which in recent years has developed into an enormous strategic military partnership. On Dec. 17, Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi signed a secret military pact with his Syrian counterpart General Ali Habib in Damascus, with Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah appending his signature later. Prior to this, in 2006 the defence ministers from Iran and Syria signed an agreement for military cooperation against what they called the "common threats" presented by Israel and the United States. Recent months have brought an increased war of words between Israel and Syria, with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem warning Israel this week that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities."With the obvious rearmament of its enemies surrounding her, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak have remained defiant in the face of growing threats. However, Netanyahu certainly sees through the distractions being put on by Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria, and, while in no way ignoring those tangible threats, looks past the rumours of local war at the far greater nemesis headquartered in Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister has made repeated gestures implying that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparing a pre-emptive, unilateral military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu's warnings to Iran cannot be overlooked; rarely has a leader struck such a historical, 'seize-the-moment' tone in international affairs. Everywhere he travels, Benjamin Netanyahu reminds his audiences of the unprecedented nuclear crossroads facing the global community. Either the major powers unite to prevent the globe's greatest state-sponsor of terrorism --the Iranian Islamic Republic-- from developing the ultimate weapon, or else tiny Israel --the very nation which is targeted by Iran's desired weapons-- will take unilateral, explosive action to change the very course of modern history. By destroying Iran's nuclear facilities in the pursuit of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel, of all nations, will do the world's dirty work. For all of Russia and China's public protestations, neither state wants to see Iran develop nukes. Make no mistake, a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran in 2010 will alter the course of events for the entire decade to come, and then some. There could be no greater collision of contentious circumstances than in this now highly likely scenario.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the
Holocaust Memorial at Auschwitz in January
The Obama administration has reiterated that a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran would be unfavourable and potentially be devastating to international relations by dividing the major powers at the Security Council. For its part, the administration is correct. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu declared last week while standing on the grounds at Auschwitz, so long as he is Prime Minister, he will not allow a repeat of the Holocaust, no matter the short term consequences that result from bombing Iran. Netanyahu boldly declared, “Murderous hatred must be stopped in its tracks, stopped right from the beginning. All countries in the world must learn this lesson, just as we did after losing a third of our people in blood-soaked Europe. We learned that the only guarantee for the protection of our people is the State of Israel and its army, the IDF."These are tremendously serious statements coming from the leader of the the Middle East's most despised nation - Israel. That Netanyahu would publicly imply his nation's preparedness in striking Iran, and as a result potentially send the staggering global economy into a tailspin on the back of skyrocketing oil prices, all dramatically and emphatically underscores the utter, abject seriousness of the situation right now between Israel, Iran and the rest of the world.
However all of this warmongering regarding a potential conflict between Israel and Iran masks what is the more likely battle set to soon emerge in the Middle East, and that is an armed conflict between Israel and her closest "neighbours", Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria. These neighbours each publicly seek the goal of eliminating the "Zionist Regime", Israel, and have shown their willingness to engage in asymmetrical warfare to do so. Is it possible they might engage Israel in battle all at the same time?
There is a serious likelihood that Iran will attempt to waylay Israel's plans for stopping the Iranian nuke, by instigating a proxy war between Israel, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - all at the same time. If Iran can successfully bog Israel down into yet another proxy battle throughout the rest of 2010, and if the United States and UN Security Council fails to take military action against Iran while an Iranian proxy war is transpiring in Israel, then Iran will buy further time to develop to their ballistic nuclear arsenal.
This prospect is more frightening than an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran. The same truck-sized Iranian nuclear bomb that Der Spiegel warned about, could potentially be introduced while Israel is fighting a four-front proxy war against Iran's proxy armies. Netanyahu knows that if the Jewish State has any chance of surviving in the future, it must stop the Iranian Bomb before the proxies tie down the Israeli military in a bloody conventional war on Israeli soil.
In essence, Israel has absolutely no good options, and thus the drums of war, always slowly thumping in the distance across Israel, can be heard banging at Israel's door. The question for the Iranian and Israeli governments is this: who will open that cursed door first?
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