Showing posts with label nukes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nukes. Show all posts

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Testing the Canada-Israel alliance

Here's my latest op-ed for the Times of Israel, titled: "Testing the Canada-Israel alliance". Enjoy. - R.O.
http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/testing-the-canada-israel-alliance/

----------------------------------------------------
"Testing the Canada-Israel alliance"
By: Robert D. Onley - 20 January 2014

The inaugural visit of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to Israel represents a significant moment for an Israeli government that is in vital need of dependable friends and reliable moral allies. Much has already been said about Prime Minister Harper’s unequivocal and unparalleled support of Israel since being elected in 2006.

Indeed because the governments of Canada and Israel see eye-to-eye on nearly every geopolitical issue facing the Jewish State, an important question must be asked about the long-term nature of this bilateral relationship, as the Canada-Israel alliance could soon be tested in both word and deed.

Though the United States remains Israel’s unquestioned military ally, many observers note the increasing willingness of the Obama Administration to publicly object to all of Israel’s policies – on the Palestinian peace process, on settlement construction, and most notably on the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The latter is most troubling when coupled with the obvious intent of the United States to codify a questionable “final nuclear deal” with the Iranian government later this year and thus absolve the U.S. of any potential military response toward the issue.

Of course it is unsurprising that after two long wars in the Middle East, the United States is ready to step off the stage. Nonetheless the timing could not be worse, as Iran appears to be using present negotiations to buy time for the development of its Persian Bomb.

For example the delay between the announcement of the P5+1′s “interim deal” with Iran on November 24, 2013 in Geneva, and the final text of what then became the “preliminary deal” actually enacted on January 17, 2014, emphasizes Iran’s disconcerting abuse of process.

Accordingly under the Harper government, Canada has stated that it is “deeply skeptical” about the deal, which will hopefully see Iran scale back its nuclear work in exchange for the West easing multiple layers of sanctions which were painstakingly agreed upon by the largely disunited U.N. Security Council.

Canada shares Israel’s primal fear about whether or not the Iranian government can be trusted to live up to the terms of the deal. But aside from echoing Netanyahu’s pessimism about the trustworthiness of the radical theocratic regime in Tehran, it would appear that Canada can contribute little toward stopping Iran’s covert march toward nuclear weapons.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) seen with his Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper during a welcoming ceremony for Harper at Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem January 19, 2014.
To be sure, there is likely cooperation between Canada and Israel on the espionage and sabotage of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, just as there is with many Western powers.

However in the context of Canada and Israel’s growing alliance, consideration must be given to what might transpire between the nations if diplomacy with Iran ultimately fails. In such a scenario – one that has undoubtedly been war-gamed – Canada’s steadfast moral support of Israel, and Harper’s fundamental belief in Israel’s unique position within the Middle East, will be tested in the flesh.

If there is any government on earth that based on its public statements alone appears willing to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, it is Canada; not France, not the U.K., not Italy and not Germany. None of these Western nations even come close to Canada in levying consistent condemnation of Iran’s rhetoric and in pronouncing warnings about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Moreover if there is one government on earth that would publicly and defiantly endorse an Israeli decision to conduct unilateral military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, again it is Canada. This would be no small measure for a “middle power” like Canada, closely allied with the United States but fiercely carving its own identifiable policy in the Middle East apart from its natural Western allies.

The Netanyahu government’s recent criticism of the European Union‘s “hypocrisy” toward Israel bears out Canada’s policy independence on the myriad issues affecting Israel.

Canada’s nearly solitary voice of moral support for Israel is also reflected in comments made by Rafael Barak, Israel’s ambassador to Canada. Speaking to the Canadian media recently, Barak stated,
“We see Iran as a serious threat. Canadians have the same view. I feel that other countries have the same view, but the difference is that Canada is expressing their ideas in public.”
The biggest question for this alliance in early 2014 is whether the Harper government would back up its public expressions with tangible action, either to facilitate effective military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, or perhaps more reasonably to help protect the Jewish homeland against Iranian counter-strikes through cooperative defensive military manoeuvres.

The Canadian Forces gained invaluable counter-terrorism experience in over ten years of fighting in Afghanistan (where it bore a disproportionate number of combat losses compared to its ISAF partners) and is adept at assisting in disaster relief operations: might Israel call upon Canadian help if Iran unleashes Hezbollah against the Jewish State? Such a seemingly hyperbolic scenario cannot simply be ignored.

If Netanyahu is in fact preparing for unilateral military action against Iran, as is perennially reported, it is reasonable to suggest that amid all the other nations, Canada alone might be asked for even the smallest contribution on or after that fateful day. This suggestion is particularly probative if the Obama Administration refuses to give Netanyahu a “green light” for the mission. Harper may in fact be the only friend Netanyahu will have to call for help.

These are topics rarely explored in light of Canada’s relatively small military capacity, as some would immediately dismiss out of hand the idea of Canada providing military assistance to Israel.

Perhaps the Harper government would rather not publicly breach such a discussion for fear of unnerving its domestic audience, and this much is understandable. Nonetheless Canada’s unwavering moral alliance with Israel since 2006 clearly provokes legitimate inquiry in the event that Israel’s “D-Day” with Iran arrives.

There is no question that both Israel, Canada and the world desires a peaceful resolution to the stand-off with Iran over its illicit nuclear weapons program. Diplomacy, as it is occurring today, should indeed be given a chance. The unfortunate reality is that time is not on the side of those who seek to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

As Canada’s lonely stand with Israel makes clear, neither country operates in the realm of diplomatic wishful thinking. Rather, the Canada-Israel alliance recognizes the ruthless reality of the hate-filled, anti-Semitic dystopia that Israel’s enemies, like the Iranian regime, never cease to concoct and broadcast right next door. As Harper visits Netanyahu in Israel this week, this reality is surely on their agenda.

Read more: Testing the Canada-Israel Alliance | Robert David Onley | Ops & Blogs | The Times of Israel http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/testing-the-canada-israel-alliance/#ixzz2quL0Fkt0
Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

Tags: Harper visits Israel, Canadian visit to Israel, Prime Minister visits Israel, Canadian delegation trip to Israel, Harper meets Netanyahu, Harper in Israel, Harper in Jerusalem, Prime Minister in Israel

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Russia vows response against Israel for future Syria strikes

The story below fits as a scenario that could lead to the prophesied war found in the book of Ezekiel, chapters 38 and 39. In that prophecy, Biblical scholars (among them Joel Rosenberg who I interviewed in 2010) generally agree that Gog, a large kingdom from the north of Israel, will join forces against Israel's enemies to destroy Israel in the last days. 

Carefully read Ezekiel's prophecy above in the context of the story below: Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly pledging to retaliate against Israel, if Israel conducts another strike on targets inside Syria. 

At the same time, yesterday (May 15, 2013), the Israeli government publicly pledged to "bring down" Syria's President Assad if Assad retaliates against Israel for Israeli air strikes inside Syria on missiles and weapons systems bound for Iran's terrorist proxy militia Hizballah in southern Lebanon. 

The threat posed to Israel by all of these interconnected alliances is compounded by Israel's long-rumoured potential mission to conduct air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and missile sites. In short: the Middle East is at the precipice of total conflagration.

The truth and potential fulfillment of the Bible's prophecies in Ezekiel is becoming explicitly clear, and is worthy of critical assessment by believers and non-believers alike. What if the as-yet-unfulfilled prophecies written 2500 years ago are coming true in this lifetime? Christians are commanded to pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6). In light of the likelihood of massive global war, perhaps non-Christians should be praying that too. 


Even so, come Lord Jesus (Rev. 22:20).
-R.O.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Syrian-Israeli war of words via Putin edges into Syrian-Hizballah war of attrition"

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 16, 2013, 10:58 AM (IDT)

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on Syria. In fact, Putin warned his guest that Israel and its army, the IDF, were heading for war with Syria in which Russia might well be involved – and not just through the advanced S-300 anti-air missiles supplied to the Assad government.

The case Netanyahu and Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi put before Putin and Russian foreign intelligence chief, SVR Director Mikhail Fradkov, fell on deaf ears.

They found the Russian leader further infuriated by the docking that day at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat of the USS Kearsarge, carrying 1,800 marines and a consignment of 20 V-22 Osprey helicopters which US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had promised to supply to Israel during his April visit.

Putin viewed the stationing of US forces in the Gulf of Aqaba just two hours away the Israeli-Syrian border for repelling Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah aggression against Israel or Jordan – signaled by the Kearsage’s arrival - as an act of bad faith by Washington. On the one hand, they want us to cooperate for an international conference to end the bloodshed in Syria, while on the other, they deploy military forces, he complained to Netanyahu.

The Israeli prime minister countered with a warning that Israel would continue to strike advanced weapons in Syria that were destined for Hizballah. And if President Bashar Assad hit back for Israel’s May 5 bombardment of weapons stores on Mount Qassioun near Damascus, Israel would intensify its bombardments of Syrian military targets and weapons until Assad was left to fight off rebel assaults empty-handed.

Putin rejected this threat as implausible.

Neither Putin nor Netanyahu put all their cards on the table, but the conversation ended with the Russian leader fully confident that his capabilities for safeguarding Assad were greater than Israel’s ability to destroy him.

In the end, Netanyahu and his party arrived home Tuesday evening with a bad feeling. They were certain that Moscow had given Assad the green light to go through with his threat to make the Syrian Golan and the Horan of southern Syria “a front for resistance” – i.e. the platforms for embarking on a war of attrition against northern Israel with the help of a flow of advanced weapons to Hizballah.

The Syrian ruler is strongly encouraged to adopt this path by Tehran. Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has embraced it. And the radical Palestinian leader, Ahmed Jibril, head of the Assad-satellite Popular Front-General Command, has eagerly offered his services.

And indeed, Wednesday, the day after Netanyahu’s trip to Sochi, Jibril’s group let loose with mortar fire on the Israeli Mt. Hermon ski site, firing from a Syrian army position.



Israeli military sources confirmed later that these were no stray shells from a Syrian-army-rebel battle as in former cases, but a deliberate attack. In Jerusalem, it was taken as a direct consequence of Moscow’s account to Assad of the conversation between the Russian and Israeli leaders. They concluded that Assad took it for granted that he was now at liberty to go on the offensive against Israel.

Wednesday night, Netanyahu’s office reacted to this deterioration with a swift and strong warning.
Israeli media were informed bluntly that if the Assad chose to retaliate for Israel’s air strikes, he would be removed from power.

That same night, “a senior Israeli official” contacted The New York Times with a more detailed warning quoted by the paper: "If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate."

Within hours, early Thursday morning, May 16, Jerusalem had its answer from Damascus.
A Palestinian group calling itself “Martyrs of the Abdel Qader al-Husseini Brigades” (named for the commander of a Palestinian force fighting Israel in its 1948 War of Independence) claimed responsibility for the "rockets" aimed at an Israeli military observation post in the Golan Heights. They were fired in honor of Nakba Day, said the statement released in Damascus "We are not celebrating but avenging the blood of our martyrs."

A video showing the launch was appended.

Palestinian terrorist groups habitually use made-up names when claiming attacks, a practice often followed by al Qaeda, but this one was easily identified by Israel and taken to mean that Assad had begun using what the Israeli official referred to in The New York Times as "his terrorist proxies."

Depending on the next move decided on by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, this incident could mark the tipping-point of a slide towards a war confrontation against Israel by Syria, Hizballah and other Assad proxies.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Iran closer than ever to nuclear bomb

Will Israel be forced to take unilateral military action to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program? With every passing day, this becomes more likely. The consequences of Israeli action against Iran -- or inaction -- will undoubtedly be global. Count on it. - R.O.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Netanyahu: Iran closer than ever to nuclear bomb
Jerusalem Post - February 22, 2013
IAEA report: 180 centrifuges hooked up at Natanz, Iran's main uranium enrichment plant; PM calls findings "very grave."
Centrifuges unveiled in Natanz. Photo: REUTERS
Iran is closer today than ever before to obtaining the necessary enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Thursday evening.

He was reacting to the publication of details of a confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran had begun installing advanced centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant.

The Prime Minister’s Office said that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons would be the first issue on the agenda when US President Barack Obama came to visit in less than a month’s time.Netanyahu termed the report “very grave,” and said it proved that Iran was moving swiftly toward the red line he had set out at the United Nations in September. He said during that address that Iran must be stopped before it crossed the line, something he said at the time could happen as early as the spring.

According to the report, 180 so-called IR-2m centrifuges and empty centrifuge casings had been hooked up at the plant near the central town of Natanz. They were not yet operating.

Such machines could enable Iran to significantly speed up its accumulation of material that could be used to make a nuclear weapon.

It was not clear how many of the new centrifuges Iran aims to install at Natanz, which is designed for tens of thousands.

An IAEA note informing member states late last month about Iran’s plans implied that it could be up to 3,000 or so.

Iran has for years been trying to develop centrifuges more efficient than the erratic 1970s IR-1 model it now uses, but their introduction for full-scale production has been dogged by delays and technical hurdles, experts and diplomats say.

Iran has also started testing two new centrifuge models, the IR-6 and IR6s, at a research and development facility, the IAEA report said. Centrifuges spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope in uranium.

Iran’s defiance is likely to anger world powers ahead of a resumption of talks with Tehran next week. Six world powers and Iran are due to meet for the first time in eight months in Kazakhstan on Tuesday to try again to break the impasse, but analysts expect no real progress toward defusing suspicions that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in Washington Thursday that Iran's installation of new-generation centrifuges would be "yet another provocative step."

White House spokesman Jay Carney warned Iran that it would face further pressure and isolation if it fails to address international concerns about its nuclear program in the Feb. 26 talks with world powers in the Kazakh city of Almaty.

In a more encouraging sign for the powers, however, the IAEA report said Iran in December resumed converting some of its uranium refined to a fissile concentration of 20 percent to powder for the production of reactor fuel.

That helped restrain the growth of Iran’s higher-grade uranium stockpile since the previous report in November, a development that could buy more time for diplomacy and delay possible Israeli military action.

The report said Iran had increased to 167 kg. its stockpile of 20-percent uranium – a level it says it needs to make fuel for a Tehran research reactor but which also takes it much closer to weapons-grade material, which could be obtained if it were processed further.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Iranian Official: 'Big War' means Islamic Messiah's arrival

The 'Mahdi' is the prophesied Shi'ite Islamic "Messiah". As the article below explains, 
"Shi’ites believe that at the end of time great wars will take place, and Imam Mahdi, the Shi’ites’ 12th imam, will reappear and kill all the infidels, raising the flag of Islam in all corners of the world."
If anyone had any doubts as to why the Iranian Regime is seeking nuclear weapons, those doubts should be cast aside after reading this news story. When the highest-ranking Iranian military official ties the probable war with Israel (and the U.S.) to the reappearance of the Islamic Messiah, the world should take notice, and fast. The article quotes Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi, who stated, 
"Since we are in the era of The Coming, this war will be a significant war.”
This kind of dialogue is not part of an action movie, nor a work of fiction, but rather this represents the underlying narrative that is truly driving forward the present day, real life Iran-Israel nuclear crisis. When Israeli leaders (such as Prime Minister Netanyahu) read/hear these stories, how can they not take the Iranians 100% seriously when the Iranians declare that they seek Israel's literal destruction? No other nation on earth, except Israel, faces such a persistent, pernicious threat from an enemy (and enemies) on nearly every border. These are enemies who believe it is their duty to Allah to carry out acts of martyrdom. As Vahidi stated,
“The Islamic republic is going to create a new environment on the world stage, and without a doubt victory awaits those who continue the path of martyrs. … we can defeat the enemy at its home and our nation is ready for jihad. Martyrdom has taught us to avoid wrong paths and return to the right path. Martyrdom is the right path, it’s the path to God.”
Israel is already (arguably) the most virulently hated nation on earth. For the President of the United States to then tell Israel not to attack Iran, while simultaneously failing to set any 'red lines' on Iran's nuclear weapons program, represents the height of arrogance and is a dangerous sign of non-commitment.

Israel's unilateral military precedents are explicit and numerous: when Israeli leaders declare a threat to be existential, they have acted, every single time. Will the West truly abandon the world's only Jewish State at this perilous time? If they do, and Israel acts against Iran, the riots seen after the release of the anti-Islamic movie will pale in comparison to the vitriol and violence that will be aimed at Israel. The world's military response against Israel may be exponentially worse, mark my words.

We live in disturbing times, and the world is sleepwalking into cataclysmic war. Check out the video at the end of the article for more unnerving proof. - R.O.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iran Official: 'Big War' means Mahdi's is coming
By: Reza Khalili

For the first time, Iran’s highest-ranking military official has tied the reappearance of the last Islamic messiah to the regime being prepared to go to a war based on ideology.

“With having the treasure of the Holy Defense, Valayat (Guardianship of the Jurist) and martyrs, we are ready for a big war,” Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said, according to Mashregh news, which is run by the Revolutionary Guards.

“Of course this confrontation has always continued; however, since we are in the era of The Coming, this war will be a significant war.”

Shi’ites believe that at the end of time great wars will take place, and Imam Mahdi, the Shi’ites’ 12th imam, will reappear and kill all the infidels, raising the flag of Islam in all corners of the world.

Vahidi became the Revolutionary Guards intelligence officer after the 1979 Islamic revolution and later was promoted to chief commander of the Quds Forces. He is on the Interpol most-wanted list for the Jewish community center bombing in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 and injured hundreds.

Vahidi also played a major role in the 1996 Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. servicemen.

Speaking at a mosque in remembrance of the martyrs who died in service to Iran, Vahidi stated that, “The Islamic republic is going to create a new environment on the world stage, and without a doubt victory awaits those who continue the path of martyrs. … we can defeat the enemy at its home and our nation is ready for jihad. Martyrdom has taught us to avoid wrong paths and return to the right path. Martyrdom is the right path, it’s the path to God.”

Vahidi said Iran’s enemies would have taken action in Syria in the past couple of years if they had the capability. Iran is a much more formidable power than Syria, he said, and concluded that Tehran can easily wipe out the “Zionist regime” of Israel.

Several U.S. officials, including Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have called the officials of the Islamic regime “rational actors.”

Meanwhile, a Revolutionary Guards report quoting the head of the Guards’ public relations, Ramezan Sharif, revealed that Iran has military assets in several countries.

The presence of Quds Forces in Syria and Lebanon, Sharif said, is with the goal of supporting the Islamic nations and for the special situations that exist in those countries.

Sharif said Iranian presence is based on international laws and that, “Currently the Revolutionary Guards has presence in 15 countries, among them Syria and Lebanon, while the Iranian military also has presence in some other countries.”

As revealed recently, terrorist assets of the Islamic regime have been put on high alert for attacks on Israeli and U.S. interests. This extends from the Middle East to Africa, Latin America and the United States.

In a report Thursday in the Washington Times, Kevin L. Perkins, deputy director of the FBI, told a hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee that the agency considered Iran’s assets a “serious threat.”

“Quds Forces, Hezbollah and others have shown they both have the capability and the willingness to extend beyond that (Middle East) region of the world and likely here into the homeland itself,” he testified.

Guard commanders have openly stated that they have recruited assets from Latin America and even some from European countries to avoid suspicion by intelligence agencies and will target America should it get involved militarily against Iran.

Reza Kahlili translated this Iranian video about Islamic prophecies of a coming messiah and the destruction of Israel:

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and author of the award-winning book “A Time to Betray” (Simon & Schuster, 2010). He serves on the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and the advisory board of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran (FDI).

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Middle East Spirals Out of Control

Middle East Spirals Out of Control
By Arnold Ahlert

Must read. Here's a snippet... -R.O.

"A New York Post editorial best expressed this reality. “This week, Barack Obama got a life lesson: There is no dealing with the 9th century. It can be held at arm’s length, and beaten back when necessary, but it has nothing in common with the 21st century–that is, with civilization.” They further noted that the administration’s aforementioned crutch is exactly that. “Ostensibly, the week’s rioting has been over a mindless bit of videography clearly meant to defame Mohammed and, by extension, Islam. In the modern world, blasphemy is shrugged off. In the 9th century, it warrants mayhem. And in the Obama White House, it’s cause for compromising a fundamental principle, the First Amendment,” it states."

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Iranian regime slammed by UN Secretary General at Iran's NAM Summit

Kudos to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for speaking harshly against Iran, in Iran, at the Non-Aligned Movement Summit today. Earlier this week Ban faced sharp criticism for even attending the NAM Summit in Iran because his attendance was seen as legitimizing the Iranian government and its many provocative statements. 

However, quite unexpectedly, Ban used the NAM forum to publicly call out the Iranian government by authoritatively stating global objections to Iran's behaviour - objections which the West has been raising for many years. Ban even specifically defended Israel's existence, too, uttering the very name, "Israel", which Iranian government representatives are forbidden from using (preferring instead their pejorative and geographically abstract term "Zionist regime").  

Here are some of Ban's bold, necessary and critical comments against the theocratic Iranian regime. We need more of this from the rest of the world. Iran's nuclear program must be stopped. Faster, please. - R.O.

Tehran, 30 August 2012 - Secretary-General's remarks to the High-Level Segment of the 16th Non-Aligned Movement Summit
UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon

"And from this platform – as I have repeatedly stated around the world -- I strongly reject threats by any member state to destroy another or outrageous attempts to deny historical facts, such as the Holocaust.

Claiming that another UN Member State, Israel, does not have the right to exist, or describing it in racist terms, is not only utterly wrong but undermines the very principles we have all pledged to uphold."

and...

"Assuming the leadership of the NAM provides Iran with the opportunity to demonstrate that it can play a moderate and constructive role internationally. That includes responsible action on the nuclear programme which is among the top concerns of the international community.

This concern has been demonstrated in repeated Security Council resolutions, including under Chapter VII authority, calling for transparency and full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

For the sake of peace and security in this region and globally, I urge the Government of Iran to take the necessary measures to build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme.

This can be done by fully complying with the relevant Security Council resolutions and thoroughly cooperating with the IAEA.

I urge, also, constructive engagement with the P5+1 to quickly reach a diplomatic solution."

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Israel: Diplomacy with Iran has "failed"

This is the first time an Israeli Minister (Danny Ayalon) has gone on the record to say that diplomatic talks with Iran have "failed." Hugely significant statement, one certainly only made with the approval of Prime Minister Netanyahu. While many times in the past Israel has made threats that it was prepared to take "action" against Iran, this is the first time that Israeli leaders have asked the international community to declare that diplomacy has run its course - implicitly stating that the time for military action has in fact finally arrived. If Ayalon's statement were to be accepted, there are of course very few alternatives to stopping Iran short of targeted air strikes in conjunction with massive cyber attacks against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Intriguing and foreboding development... - R.O.
UPDATE (16/08): Now Michael Oren, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., has also gone on the record stating that diplomacy has "failed". This is now officially the Israeli government's public position.


New York Times: Israeli Minister Asks Nations to Say Iran Talks Have Failed
By JODI RUDOREN
Published: August 13, 2012

JERUSALEM - Amid intensifying Israeli news reports saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to ordering a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, his deputy foreign minister called Sunday for an international declaration that the diplomatic effort to halt Tehran's enrichment of uranium is dead.

Referring to the Iran negotiations led by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, the minister, Danny Ayalon, told Israel Radio that those nations should "declare today that the talks have failed." After such a declaration, if Iran does not halt its nuclear program, "it will be clear that all options are on the table," Mr. Ayalon said, not only for Israel, but also for the United States and NATO.

Asked how long the Iranians should be given to cease all nuclear activity, Mr. Ayalon said "weeks, and not more than that."

The comments came after a frenzy of newspaper articles and television reports over the weekend here suggesting that Mr. Netanyahu had all but made the decision to attack Iran unilaterally this fall. The reports contained little new information, but the tone was significantly sharper than it had been in recent weeks, with many of Israel's leading columnists predicting a strike despite the opposition of the Obama administration and many military and security professionals within Israel. Articles in Sunday's newspapers also examined home-front preparedness for what experts expect would be an aggressive response not just from Iran but also its allies, the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas.

"Lord help us, would you just do it already and be done with it?" wrote Ben Caspit, a columnist for the newspaper Maariv, referring to the Israeli leadership. "When one looks around the impression received is that it isn't only in Israel that they aren't being taken seriously any longer, but the world refuses to get worked up over them either."

"Maybe they'll bomb Iran in the end just to prove that they're serious," Mr. Caspit added.

Mr. Netanyahu and his top ministers have been saying for weeks that while the sanctions against Iran have hurt its economy, they have not affected the nuclear program, which Iran's leadership insists is for civilian purposes. On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom called on the United States to enact "even more extensive and even more comprehensive sanctions which could overwhelm the Iranian regime and possibly even topple it, or bring it to make the decision to abandon the nuclear program."

The mixed messages from Mr. Shalom and Mr. Ayalon came two days after Mr. Netanyahu called Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, and urged him not to go to Iran for a meeting scheduled for the end of this month of the so-called nonaligned nations (countries that were not allies of either the United States or the Soviet Union during the cold war).

"Even if it is not your intention, your visit will grant legitimacy to a regime that is the greatest threat to world peace and security," Mr. Netanyahu told Mr. Ban, according to a statement released by his office Friday night. "Not only does it threaten countries throughout the Middle East, not only is it the greatest terrorism exporter in the world, but it is impossible to exaggerate the danger it presents to Israel."

"Mr. Secretary General, your place is not in Tehran," Mr. Netanyahu added.

At a cabinet meeting on Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu seemed to be trying to rebut the Israeli newspaper articles questioning domestic preparedness as he bid farewell to the current home-front defense minister, who is becoming ambassador to China.

"There has been a significant improvement in our home-front defense capabilities," Mr. Netanyahu said, according to a transcript released by his office. "One cannot say that there are no problems in this field because there always are, but all of the threats that are currently being directed against the Israeli home front pale against a particular threat, different in scope, different in substance, and therefore I reiterate that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons."

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Ahmadinejad calls for annihilation of Israel

(Does the world need any more reason to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program immediately? The Iranian regime is not only insane; it's demonic. Israel continues to make noise about an impending unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. While the United States has made recent declarations of its willingness to use military force to stop Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamian Netanyahu remains openly and publicly skeptical. Historic precedents suggest overwhelmingly that when the Israelis say they will stop a threat, they mean it. Is the world ready for some fireworks? [For further proof, check out Iran's game of denial and deception.]  - R.O.)

Ahmadinejad calls for annihilation of Israel

By JOANNA PARASZCZUK
08/02/2012 15:49

In Ramadan speech to ambassadors from Islamic countries, Iranian president calls Zionism “plight of world history,” says liberating Palestine would solve all the world’s problems.


Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi

In a speech published on his website Thursday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the ultimate goal of world forces must be the annihilation of Israel.

Speaking to ambassadors from Islamic countries ahead of ‘Qods Day’ (‘Jerusalem Day’), an annual Iranian anti-Zionist event established in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini and which falls this year on August 17, Ahmadinejad said that a “horrible Zionist current” had been managing world affairs for “about 400 years.”

Repeating traditional antisemitic slurs, the Iranian president accused “Zionists” of controlling the world’s media and financial systems.

It was Zionists, he said, who were “behind the scene of the world’s main powers, media, monetary and banking centers.”

“They are the decision makers, to the extent that the presidential election hopefuls [of the USA] must go and kiss the feet of the Zionists to ensure their election victory,” he added.

Ahmadinejad added that “liberating Palestine” would solve all the world’s problems, although he did not elaborate on exactly how that might work.

“Qods Day is not merely a strategic solution for the Palestinian problem, as it is to be viewed as a key for solving the world problems,” he said.

He added: “Anyone who loves freedom and justice must strive for the annihilation of the Zionist regime in order to pave the way for world justice and freedom.”

The Iranian president said that Israel reinforced “the dominance of arrogant powers in the region and across the globe” and that Arab countries in particular – he cited Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Syria and Turkey – were affected by Israel’s “plots.”

Ahmadinejad, who has called the Holocaust a myth, has previously called for Israel’s annihilation, in a 2005 speech in which he used a Persian phrase that translates literally as “wiped off the page of time.”

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Romney: Iranian nuke "capacity" is "unacceptable"

Mitt Romney backs Israel on Iran
"Romney would respect an Israeli decision to use military force to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Mr Romney will give a speech later on Sunday near Jerusalem's Old City in which he is expected to say it is "unacceptable" for Iran to have the "capacity" to develop nuclear weapons."

Your move, Obama: Upon which side of history will you fall? - R.O.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Dangerously Doubting the IAEA Report on Iran

My op-ed published last week in Canada's National Post, was picked up and published today in the Windsor Star. I feel my op-ed is even more prescient now, given that the U.S., UK, and Canada went ahead with unilateral sanctions against Iran's central bank, just as Israel has conspicuously gone silent about the threat posed by Iran. The unwillingness of Russia and China to further sanction Iran, or contemplate additional Security Council resolutions, may ultimately force Israel to act alone. If you haven't read the full version of my article, check it out below here. -R.O.
http://www.windsorstar.com/news/death+truth/5776603/story.html

"The Death of Truth"
By: Robert D. Onley
Published in the Windsor Star: November 28, 2011

Fallout from the misleading intelligence that led to the 2003 war in Iraq is now leading the international community into dangerous, reactive skepticism of the IAEA's damning report on Iran's now exposed nuclear weapons program.

Despite the wide-ranging report, Russia and China have already rejected the possibility of increasing sanctions against Iran, arguing on disingenuous grounds that the U.K., France and U.S. will use sanctions as an "instrument for regime change in Iran." Major news outlets are similarly casting complete doubt on IAEA claims that Iran is actively working on nukes.

While the IAEA report was indeed preceded by loud sabre-rattling from the American and Israeli political establishments, the supposed "leak" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's readiness to conduct unilateral airstrikes certainly was no accident.

Designed to spark global discourse on Iran prior to the report's release, the leaks underscored Netanyahu's long-standing fears about the truth of Iran's "peaceful" nuclear program.

Thus the sabre-rattling should not discredit the catastrophic implications of the report, which sets out in unprecedented detail the extent of Iran's nuke program.

Some skeptics dismissively claim that Iran's research into the design of nuclear weapons is not a breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran is a signatory state and internationally bound not to "manufacture" or otherwise "acquire" nuclear weapons. However, this suggestion completely misses the point, highlighting the dangerous naivety of reactive skepticism.

The indisputable facts about Iran's nuclear weapons research are as follows. Since 2003, Iran has:

. Conducted extensive research into bomb designs and detonators

. Continued development of intercontinental ballistic missiles

. Covertly constructed numerous weapons-related facilities, notably the Fordow uranium enrichment facility - built inside of a mountain, itself inside of a military base.

Iran did so while repeatedly claiming its nuclear program is "peaceful." This blatant stall tactic deliberately impeded progress during years of nuclear negotiations with the West.

Russia and China have dismissed the IAEA report as a manufactured casus belli to attack Iran, and have painted Yukiya Amano, the IAEA head, as a pro-western dupe. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov obliquely warned the West that attacking Iran would be "a very serious mistake."

The tragic casualty in all of this misguided skepticism is the truth itself. The fact that a 25-page report from the IAEA - the one global institution tasked with preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons - can so blithely be dismissed as a lie, emphasizes the abject depravity of the international community's moral core.

A country - the Islamic Republic of Iran - with a president who openly and callously denies that the Holocaust occurred, is now at the threshold of possessing the very weaponry that could cause the Second Holocaust.

In the face of this utterly malignant, horrifying historic juncture, the world's instinctive reaction is to render the IAEA's years of painstaking intelligence-gathering not as a terrifying truth, but rather as an unremitting lie.

Beset with widespread protests, a faltering global economy and a Middle East already in turmoil, hesitation to greenlight another conflict in the region is wholly understandable and with merit.

However, for these same nations to then simply ignore the threat of another country's obtaining nukes, out of fear of causing temporary instability in the Middle East, is to abandon the world's future to the enemies of peace, destroy the NPT and spark a nuclear arms race.

Israel, the one nation most directly threatened by the potential of a nuclear-armed Iran, is today at its gravest geopolitical crossroads since coming into existence.

If Israel decides to undertake unilateral military action against Iran, Netanyahu must convene with the UN Security Council and reveal all of Israel's intelligence on Iranian nukes. Israel must irrefutably prove that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and thus represents a threat to the peace of the world under UNSC Article 39.

The truth on this matter cannot be left in any doubt, because the truth - about Iran's nuclear weapons program and the threat from Iran's theocratic Shia "Twelver" leadership - is Israel's only ally in the long-standing fight for its very survival as the world's sole, immovable, Jewish state.

Robert D. Onley is vice-chair of YouthCan for International Dialogue and president of the Students' Law Society at the University of Windsor's Law School.
© Copyright (c) The Windsor Star

Monday, November 21, 2011

"Israel's only ally is the truth" - Published in the National Post

Today I was published for the first time in a Canadian national newspaper, the National Post. The op-ed, "Israel's only ally is the truth" is a shorter version of my original op-ed "The Death of Truth" which was first published here on my blog. It is an honour to be published on the pages of the National Post. Thanks for reading. - R.O.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/21/robert-d-onley-israels-only-ally-is-the-truth/

Monday, June 27, 2011

Canadian Defence Policy at the G8/G20 Youth Summit

Check out my position paper written for the 2011 G8/G20 Youth Summit which was held in Paris, France from May 29 to June 3. Using this paper as a foundation, I lobbied for Canadian defence interests in the G8 Ministers of Defence Committee. In my paper, I focus particularly on the nuclear proliferation threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the consequences if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

Full link: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B56cVZO3CDLXMmRkMWRlZDEtNWIwYy00NGU0LTk5MDAtZWViZWY3NDRhYmM3&hl=en_US&authkey=COLqmagJ

Ministers of Defence Committee - Samuel Leval (France), Jeff Rohde (USA), Andy Johnson (UK), Leo Axthelm (Germany), during negotiations at the G8/G20 Youth Summit in Paris, France

Also, for anyone interested in reading what the future youth leaders of the G8 and G20 think about the most pressing global issues, click here to read the entire Final Communiqué drafted by each of the respective Committees of the G8/G20. The Defence Committee's final consensus document starts at page 39, which greatly reflects my successful lobbying efforts on behalf of the Government of Canada.

Appreciate any feedback. - R.O.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

The Start of Negotiations at the G8/G20 Youth Summit

Here's my second blog post from the 2011 G8/G20 Youth Summit, as published by the official University of Toronto Scarborough Blog last week. - R.O.

Youth International Dialogue – Negotiations Begin - 7 June 2011

As a political science graduate from UTSC, I often read of international negotiations about grave global issues throughout my studies. From the UN Security Council debates leading up to the War in Iraq, to the Copenhagen Climate Change Conventions, nation states seek consensus on serious issues. However divisions, mistrust and self-interested policy proposals often lead to failed talks that do not produce tangible results.

As the Youth Ministers of Defense began negotiations on Day 2 of the 2011 G8/G20 Youth Summit, the challenge was to reach consensus on arguably the most serious global peace and security concerns: stopping nuclear weapons proliferation; stabilizing Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Korea; and ending piracy on our global seaways. Complete reform of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s efforts was also high on our list of agenda objectives.

Of these issues, the agenda was dominated by a comprehensive reassessment of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in the context of the Iranian nuclear program. In the real world, negotiations with Iran over possible military dimensions of their nuclear energy program have stalled repeatedly over the last eight years. Concerns about Iran achieving nuclear “breakout” potential are driving other nations in the openly express fear about the prospect of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Each youth delegate’s position on the agenda topics had been discussed and debated online through Google Groups in the months leading up to the event. By analyzing the topics independently and critically examining each other’s proposals prior to the Youth Summit, we had narrowed down our potential agenda in an effort to avoid unnecessary arguing at the actual event in Paris.

As the Canadian Minister of Defense, I expressed a deep desire to see the G8 Youth extensively examine national policy on the counter-terrorism campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given that the Government of Canada has already committed to a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011, I lobbied my delegate colleagues to agree to a comprehensive post-combat reconstruction plan. Generally we reached consensus on the best way forward for the people of Afghanistan and our respective governments.

As negotiations over Pakistan, North Korea and Iran progressed, I was surprised at how closely we began to follow our national government’s actual stated policies. While we were in no way required to mimic our governments’ positions, the youth delegates showed an obvious degree of pride by standing up for their own national policies. Nonetheless, numerous concessions were made in the interest of achieving positive consensus. NATO allies including Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United States formed a bulwark within the G8 defence discussions, providing a strong, if not united front in reaching consensus.

Once the basic agenda preparations had been completed, we began to use Google Documents, connected via a laptop to a projector, to collaboratively draft our consensus decisions for the final communiqué. This process of simultaneous editing provided an incomparably efficient and transparent way of reaching an accord. All eight delegates could see each and every word as it was written, and likewise could object to any wording that they deemed controversial.

By infusing our confident grasp of modern communications and productivity technologies, the majority of our negotiations were rightly focused on the heart of the agenda issues. When talking about the proliferation of nuclear weapons, this was critical to ensure that we wasted no time on minor form and syntax issues.

In my next post, I’ll delve into to the most contentious aspects of our discussion and give an inside perspective on just what it means to ‘compromise’ in international negotiations.