Such a declaration is disturbing, if not surprising. A mere three weeks ago, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev agreed with Barack Obama and the rest of the United Nations Security Council members at the G20 Meeting in Pittsburgh, on the need for the pursuit of a world "free of nuclear weapons". As genuine as the initiative is, there is no mistaking that both Russia and the US will always possess nukes. Nonetheless, the "nuke-free world" idea at the very least offered hope for continued stability between the major powers and a reduction of tensions between the West and Russia.
Therefore, the report suggesting Russia's pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons -- which was released yesterday as negotiations with Iran resumed in Vienna -- comes across as a tremendously provocative move by the Kremlin. In as many words, Russian Presidential Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev is warning the Western powers against taking any further aggressive steps toward pressuring Iran to halt its nuclear program. Their words are also inherently destabilizing. What could possibly be gained from reminding the world of Russia's pre-emptive right to use nukes at such an uncertain time as this? While professing a nuke-free world, Russia is seen defending the world's sole nuclear-aspirant -- Iran -- by reinforcing Russia's right to the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons in the defence of Russian interests.
Russia's pre-emptive reminder may as well have come from the public relations department inside Tehran. While Iran is perhaps still a few months away from physically possessing a nuclear weapon (some reports suggest a far shorter timeline), the fact that Russia delivered such a bold statement in the midst of negotiations serves as a "pre-emptive" rhetorical attack against Iran's enemies, namely Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom. The Russo-Persian message is simple: mess with Iran and you will feel Russia's wrath. As a rebuke, it would be equally provocative to suggest that Russia might unleash tactical nukes against Israel, Iraq, or US troops in the region - but if such horror has not been contemplated by Putin and Medvedev, why would Russia remind the world as such?
There is one nation shuddering under this clammer among the major powers - Israel. The Jewish State is caught squarely in the middle of the Iranian nuclear question, threatened existentially by Iran's nuclear program, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu often reminding the world of his nation's willingness to take unilateral action against Iran's nuclear program should negotiations fail. But with the release of Russia's pre-emptive nuclear strike policy, the ultimate question for Israel becomes this: would Russia pre-emptively strike the Jewish State if Israel were to unilaterally bomb Iran? Perhaps more realistically, would Russia authorize its military, allied with Iran, to unleash counter-attacks against Israel in response to Israeli pre-emptive strikes on Iran's nuclear sites?
Russia's policy indicates precisely this dystopian reality. The proposed doctrine would allow for the use of nuclear weapons "to repel an aggression with the use of conventional weapons not only in a large-scale but also in a regional and even local war," Patrushev was quoted as saying. He further stated that a government analysis of the threat of conflict in the world showed "a shift from large-scale conflicts to local wars and armed conflicts." Precisely which nations are likely to be the scene of local wars in the very near future? Both Israel and Iran. The probability of future conflict involving Israel is growing daily, as nations - including Turkey most recently - are aligning against Israel in an effort to squeeze the nation into making concessions in the peace process. At the same time, this strategic re-alignment also unites Arab militaries against Israel, encircling the Jewish State.
Waiting in the wings, and supplying many of the Middle East's armies with advanced missiles and weaponry, is Russia. These weapons deals mean that if Israel were to take defensive action against her enemies - be they in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, or most likely, Iran - the probability of a Russian response against Israel grows exponentially. At the furthest extreme is a nuclear attack against Israel by Russia, which - as incredibly preposterous as it sounds today - may not seem so extreme once Israel has delivered precision strikes against Russia's billion dollar investments inside Iran's assorted nuclear enrichment facilities. Even if Russia did not resort to pre-emptive nuclear strikes, their very doctrine of pre-emptive action suggests Russia is prepared for almost-as-lethal non-nuclear military alternatives.
These are dire circumstances for global stability. For a world that a mere decade ago seemed on a path toward peaceful globalized prosperity, the situations in the Middle East today are unequivocally dragging the world closer to conflagration than ever before. With Barack Obama at the helm of the world's preeminent military power, the likelihood of American military action against Iran, or the containment of Russia in the protection of Israel, is dramatically diminishing, if not yet non-existent. Thus the concurrent likelihood of unilateral Israeli military action on Iran is rapidly approaching. Russia has now declared her disturbing willingness and blatant intentions to protect Iran at all costs - even advocating nuclear warfare. How will the rest of the world respond when the Iranian nuclear crisis reaches its grand finale? The clock is ticking.
Robert D. Onley
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