Russia's Brinkmanship with US Clashes with Israel's Security

A brief summary of Russia's recent foreign policy moves and how they impact Israel. Does Russia think there won't be consequences for supporting terror states like Iran and Syria? -R.O.

Middle East and Terrorism: Russia's Brinkmanship with US Clashes with Israel's Security

by Yaakov Lappin

"Jerusalem will find Russia's delivery of the S-300 missile system to Syria to be an intolerable development; it is safe to assume that Israel will act to prevent this from happening."

Russia is aggressively squaring off with an indecisive and rather meek West about Syria, and in the process, is also threatening to undermine Israeli efforts to ensure that Iran and Syria do not ship strategic weapons to Hezbollah.

The Syrian civil war has become a dangerous and complex battle of multiple actors and their proxies: Sunni versus Shi'ite, Iran versus the Gulf states, Al-Qaeda versus Hezbollah, and on a global scale, the United States versus Russia.

Moscow is trying to deter a potential US or NATO-led initiative to set up a no-fly zone over areas of Syria, and is seeking to stop Western-led air strikes against chemical weapons sites.
Russia also seems concerned that recent air strikes in Damascus targeting Hezbollah-bound guided Iranian missiles -- strikes attributed by the foreign media to Israel -- will pave the way to such an intervention.

Israel has no interest in getting involved in the Syrian civil war. Rather, it is looking out for the safety of millions of citizens, who already live in the shadow of some 80,000 Hezbollah rockets, and would be threatened further by the transfer of precise, powerful missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In recent days, Russia unleashed a flurry of moves to establish its support of Syria.

The Russian moves include: Declaring that it will proceed with deliveries of the advanced S-300 air defense system to Assad, mobilizing war ships to the eastern Mediterranean, and selling sophisticated surface-to-sea Yakhont missiles to Assad.

Moscow's recent maneuvers might be more bluster than real -- the S-300 has yet to be delivered, and Russia was in 2010 talked out of selling the formidable air defense system to Iran.

The threat, however, was serious enough for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to make an unscheduled trip last week to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin. The two later held a press conference, repeating their public positions, but it is doubtful that those statements were a complete reflection of their private exchange.

Israel is opposed to Assad receiving the S-300 missile for several reasons: With its sophisticated radars and range of 200 kilometers, the S-300 can hamper Israel Air Force aircraft seeking to monitor Hezbollah in Lebanon. The system can also disrupt future Israeli efforts to intercept the transit of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. Finally, Assad can choose to smuggle S-300 batteries to Hezbollah or Iran.

Should the S-300 fall into Iranian hands, the future potential mission of launching a military strike on Iran's developing nuclear program would be more even more complex than it already is. Knowing that the S-300 was in Hezbollah's hands, and could target Israeli aircraft sent to stop it, would only boost the Shi'ite terror organization's confidence to launch cross-border attacks on Israel. For these reasons, Jerusalem will find Russia's delivery of such a system to Syria to be an intolerable development; it is safe to assume that Israel will act to prevent this from happening.

Similarly, the Russian Yakhont missiles already delivered to Syria threaten Israel Navy ships carrying out vital missions in the Mediterranean.

Behind closed-doors, intense diplomacy -- including the sudden visit by CIA Director John Brennan to Israel -- is underway to try and contain these developments, and prevent them from triggering further regional security deterioration.

Yaakov Lappin

Source: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3722/russia-syria-israel

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Iran closer than ever to nuclear bomb

Will Israel be forced to take unilateral military action to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program? With every passing day, this becomes more likely. The consequences of Israeli action against Iran -- or inaction -- will undoubtedly be global. Count on it. - R.O.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Netanyahu: Iran closer than ever to nuclear bomb

Jerusalem Post - February 22, 2013

IAEA report: 180 centrifuges hooked up at Natanz, Iran's main uranium enrichment plant; PM calls findings "very grave."

Centrifuges unveiled in Natanz. Photo: REUTERS

Iran is closer today than ever before to obtaining the necessary enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Thursday evening.

He was reacting to the publication of details of a confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran had begun installing advanced centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment plant.

The Prime Minister’s Office said that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons would be the first issue on the agenda when US President Barack Obama came to visit in less than a month’s time.Netanyahu termed the report “very grave,” and said it proved that Iran was moving swiftly toward the red line he had set out at the United Nations in September. He said during that address that Iran must be stopped before it crossed the line, something he said at the time could happen as early as the spring.

According to the report, 180 so-called IR-2m centrifuges and empty centrifuge casings had been hooked up at the plant near the central town of Natanz. They were not yet operating.

Such machines could enable Iran to significantly speed up its accumulation of material that could be used to make a nuclear weapon.

It was not clear how many of the new centrifuges Iran aims to install at Natanz, which is designed for tens of thousands.

An IAEA note informing member states late last month about Iran’s plans implied that it could be up to 3,000 or so.

Iran has for years been trying to develop centrifuges more efficient than the erratic 1970s IR-1 model it now uses, but their introduction for full-scale production has been dogged by delays and technical hurdles, experts and diplomats say.

Iran has also started testing two new centrifuge models, the IR-6 and IR6s, at a research and development facility, the IAEA report said. Centrifuges spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope in uranium.

Iran’s defiance is likely to anger world powers ahead of a resumption of talks with Tehran next week. Six world powers and Iran are due to meet for the first time in eight months in Kazakhstan on Tuesday to try again to break the impasse, but analysts expect no real progress toward defusing suspicions that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in Washington Thursday that Iran's installation of new-generation centrifuges would be "yet another provocative step."

White House spokesman Jay Carney warned Iran that it would face further pressure and isolation if it fails to address international concerns about its nuclear program in the Feb. 26 talks with world powers in the Kazakh city of Almaty.

In a more encouraging sign for the powers, however, the IAEA report said Iran in December resumed converting some of its uranium refined to a fissile concentration of 20 percent to powder for the production of reactor fuel.

That helped restrain the growth of Iran’s higher-grade uranium stockpile since the previous report in November, a development that could buy more time for diplomacy and delay possible Israeli military action.

The report said Iran had increased to 167 kg. its stockpile of 20-percent uranium – a level it says it needs to make fuel for a Tehran research reactor but which also takes it much closer to weapons-grade material, which could be obtained if it were processed further.

Israel's Intentional Fog of War Over Syria

By: Robert D. Onley - February 1, 2013

Israeli F-16. (file) Jerusalem Post.

The world will likely never know the exact truth about what Israel bombed in or outside of Syria this week. But as alleged details of the daring mission leak out, the murky story reveals hard truths about Israel's lethal modus operandi.

Reports about Israel's strike on a Syrian ‘military research center’ in Jamraya, near Damascus, suggest that Israel may have in fact killed a large number of Iran's Revolutionary Guardsmen protecting the facility.

If true, not only was Israel unafraid of destroying Syrian military infrastructure, and thus ready to face all potential consequences, the Israeli government in all probability knew that the attack would kill Iranian troops. Israel's action was undoubtedly designed in part to directly test Iran’s willingness to respond.

The air strike also demonstrated Israel's unflinching resolve in the face of Iran's unceasing vitriol. The unfortunate reality for Israel is that Iran long ago declared war against it. Iran behaves as if a state of war exists when its leaders make statements calling for the destruction of Israel, all while it arms its terrorist proxy militia, Hezbollah, in Lebanon to Israel's north.

Facing such enemies, Israel does not have the luxury of assessing its national security situation in the same pensive, morally equivocating way that many Western and European critics of Israel frequently argue on the pages of major newspapers.

No, quite the opposite, earlier this week when Israeli intelligence agents established that there were targets that absolutely had to be destroyed inside Syria -- in this case either a weapons convoy in the border region and/or a weapons lab in Jamraya -- the Israeli government acted immediately to remove these threats.

Israeli F-15's in formation.

It is worth noting reports that Israel gave the United States advance warning of its strike on Syrian soil. This notification highlights the likelihood that the attack was so important, time-sensitive and crucial to the security of Israel and to the stability of the region, the Israeli government was forced to act, partly on behalf of the West.

Launching air strikes against an avowed enemy, Syria, while that enemy is in the midst of a bloody civil war is no small measure. In fact, it's akin to kicking the hornet's nest after it has already fallen from the tree and the hornets are buzzing around angrily.

Amid all of the speculation and conflicting reports about which target was actually attacked in Syria (or Lebanon), it is increasingly evident that the actual truth about military matters in the Middle East will never be revealed to the global public.

Stopping to think about the two competing claims for a moment reveals myriad conflicting end games for both Israel and Syria.

SA-17.

If Western reports are true that a weapons convoy carrying advanced SA-17 missiles headed to Hezbollah was indeed destroyed by Israel, the message to Iran, Syria and Russia is that the West will not tolerate a conflation of regional tensions by drawing in Israel's arch terrorist enemy, Hezbollah. The United States made this much clear in its direct warning to Syria, and implicitly also to Russia.

But if Syrian reports are true -- that there was no weapons convoy attacked, but rather that a military research center was targeted -- then Israel was legally in contravention of the UN Charter and thus the UN Security Council should act to punish Israel. This serves to theoretically kindle sympathy for Syria from the rest of the world.

The problem is that Assad has zero global credibility today; his Russian 'support' is a product of Russian geostrategic self-interest as it seeks to preserve its sole Mediterranean naval port at Tartus.

Moreover what is perplexing is that the Syrian government was forthright about detailing exactly which type of military target Israel hit, plainly calling by its name. The Syrian statement effectively vindicated long held Western and Israeli concerns about Syria's chemical weapons capabilities and simultaneously acknowledged Israel’s reason for attacking the facility.

Such intentional state-sanctioned misdirection is not a new paradigm. Propaganda and disinformation are hard currency in the region, as efforts to confuse and mislead a nation's enemies can create immeasurable dividends in the long-term chess game that is the Middle Eastern conflict.

Israel's next pre-emptive attack is better prepared when it has been successfully obscured by the fog of war surrounding its previous mission. The ultimate truth is known only to an elite circle of leaders on both sides, and those unfortunate souls on the receiving end at ground level. As the region roils, maybe it is better this way.

----------------------------------------------------

Robert D. Onley is the Director of Policy & Development at YouthCan for International Dialogue.

© World Assessor.com, 2013