The Inevitable Iranian Crisis

In spite of Ayatollah Khamenei’s recent call for an inquiry into the Iranian ‘election’ results, and in spite of the potential for ‘reform’ embodied by Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iran and Israel are racing toward explosive armed conflict over Iran's covert - yet utterly flagrant and defiant - pursuit of nuclear weapons capability. Today, while the Iranian populace collectively and legitimately 'holds its breath' with regard to their nation’s electoral future, the depressing reality at the international level is that the Israeli-Iranian nuclear crisis will continue to deteriorate, and rapidly so.

Iran's president may change, however it is the Ayatollahs above Iran’s next president – be it Ahmadinejad or Mousavi – that remain Iran’s unchangeable, authoritative supreme leaders. Certainly the Ayatollahs cheered for one candidate or the other during the recent presidential campaigns, with Ahmadinejad’s re-election bid undeniably funded by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei et al. These are predictable variables in an unpredictable world.

However there can be no mistaking the chess-playing nature of Iran’s supreme leaders. The Ayatollahs are fully cognizant of the sheer social power that the appearance of change can bring to the overall mood of society, particularly with a people as young, impressionable and downtrodden as Iran’s. Indeed, U.S. President Obama’s election in November shook the world’s attention to this impressively powerful social force, with his hypnotic “Yes we can” mantra

bringing millions of Americans to their feet to support America’s new awe-inspiring leader.

A Facade of Change

In Iran, while the stakes may not be as electorally significant, the facade of historic change by ‘electing’ a ‘

reformer’ such as Mir Hossein Mousavi may be just the trick needed for the longevity of the Ayatollahs Islamic theocracy and for the continuing development of a certain highly sought-after Iranian weapons capability. As such, Ayatollah Khamenei's call for an ‘inquiry’ into the presidential election may represent

the first move in a carefully crafted plan to create this appearance of change and bide Iran’s time.

The simple reality is this: if Iran is to ever fully and properly develop nuclear weapons, the Ayatollahs must be unquestionably conscious of how detrimental Ahmadinejad has and will become to Iran’s secret nuclear program. There is no arguing that Ahmadinejad has isolated the Iranian regime, made a mockery of the evil of humanity by denying the Holocaust, all while simultaneously dragging their enemy Israel into armed conflict with its proxy ar

mies, first with Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and most recently with Hamas in Gaza in January 2009. International focus on Iran went from marginal uncertainty in 2005 to outright condemnation by 2009.

More critically, the Ayatollahs also know that perhaps just another few months are needed to procure enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear bombs. The world’s leading intelligence agencies are after precise knowledge as to how many nuclear weapons Iran might already have, or might soon have. Israel knows that the existence of any Iranian nuke holds the key to the Israeli response, or not, and knows that while Iran undergoes dramatic electoral upheaval and protest, the Iranian nuclear machine is quietly churning out more uranium in the background. Meanwhile the Ayatollahs simply nod with approval and smile.

'Invisible' Diplomatic Timeline?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s overt hints that Israel is prepared to ‘defend itself’ through pre-emptive action against Iran’s nuclear program patently suggests that Israel knows time has essentially run out, regardless of how many potential nukes Iran might possess. For Netanyahu, there is no ‘invisible’ one-year timeline, one which President Obama appears to envision. Obama’s fanciful diplomatic talk is but a further distraction in an already strung-out ‘negotiation’ process with Iran that spans many agonizing years.

Moreover, if Iran is still a full six months away from having the uranium for just one bomb, Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity will nonetheless continue to exponentially increase so long as more and more centrifuges are made operational in those very same six months. Thus for Israel, not only is Obama’s one-year negotiation ‘timeline’ ludicrously brief, the overall Iranian nuclear crisis ‘timeline’ is also shrinking faster for the world with each passing day and with each shiny new centrifuge.

Who Best For the Islamic Republic's Future?

Imagine then, Iran’s Ayatollahs sitting somewhere deep inside Tehran, debating which candidate to hand-pick to lead their nation into sole possession of Middle Eastern nuclear stardom. The basic, unavoidable question facing the Ayatollahs is this: which Presidential candidate will deceive the West long enough so that we (Iran) can finally develop multiple nuclear weapons – one to test and the rest to immediately deploy into ‘service’? The Ayatollahs answer for their next President just might be: “Anyone but Ahmadinejad.” Khamenei’s electoral ‘inquiry’ will reveal the depth of Iranian foresight.

As the world’s most-loathed and disturbed fanatic, President Ahmadinejad represents all of the blatant contingencies that will likely provoke a conflict with Israel sooner rather than later. Of course, this conflict is exactly what the Ayatollahs one-day desire as part of the return of their “Hidden Imam” – but war is not desired until Iran has developed multiple nuclear weapons and more importantly a nuclear deterrent combined with first strike Shahab-4 nuclear missile capability.

In light of this apocalyptic Iranian dream, the ‘election’ of an opposition candidate in Iran such as Mir Hossein Mousavi will not be a surprising result of the inquiry, as it will actually provide the necessary pomp, delay and circumstance for Iran to launch immediate, ‘full disclosure’, ‘peaceful’ nuclear negotiations with the Americans, thus ultimately gaining precious time for nuclear weapons and missile development.

At that point, Israel will be pressed so hard by all corners of the world to not launch preemptive strikes against Iran, that any action undertaken by Israel – even if limited to smaller isolated tactical strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites – will instantly ignite a horrifying barrage of missile attacks against Israel from Hezbollah, Hamas and more than likely from Iran itself. These missiles – particularly those launched from Iran – could already be tipped with a crude nuclear device assembled from Iran’s first batches of highly enriched uranium. This is to say nothing of Syria’s possible involvement, and their alleged nuclear and chemical weapons program. These are the unpredictable variables of living in the world’s most deadly region.

No Alternative Options

The lone unresolved determinable variable is therefore the frightening decision for Israel’s top political and military leaders to either undertake such defensive military strikes against Iran, or to instead accept an enemy Iranian capability that could erase the Israeli land in the blink of an eye. To leave Iran’s nuclear program unchecked is to ensure Israel’s future destruction in some form or another. This is also to abandon the dreams of Israel’s descendants to the Holocaust-denying delusions of Iran’s apocalypse-inducing leaders.

These are brutal, objective realities. There are no other enemies on earth more determined to eliminate their target

than Israel’s virulent, hate-filled, purely evil foes in Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran. Indeed even across the entire

globe today, only the State of Israel is subject to a tangible level of hate which literally threatens the actual, physical existence of Israel as its citizens - and the world - knows it.

If there is one country and one leader wholly and entirely justified in resolutely eliminating an existential threat today, that country is Israel and that leader is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Let the world not be distracted by the ‘potential’ for ‘electoral change’ in Iran; instead let Israel’s leaders remain focused, well prepared and courageously set to embark on an undesired yet unavoidable military mission that will inarguably change the course of world history. The United States has shown it will not do this for them; thus Israel cannot fail at its lonely, crucial hour.

Robert D. Onley - Copyright 2009